Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:50:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B4 0xb41c…5bd3 finance 485 markets active 1h ago coverage 60d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable finance specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 60d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,094 (+1%) realized +$2,534 · open −$440
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate52%249W / 232L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$526per market
Trades / day49.2pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$1,051now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 60d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% −$452
finance 38% −$2,684
other 14% +$3,344
sports 1% −$185
crypto 1% −$37
politics 0% −$1
weather 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -8.8% -17.5% 34% 20% +6.0%
≤30d 249 -4.8% -13.8% 47% 20% -9.7%
≤90d 481 +1.7% -8.0% 52% 19% -9.1%
all 481 +1.7% -8.0% 52% 19% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.0% 19% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -16.8% 12% -17.8%
15% -24.8% 9% -25.7%
20% -32.2% 6% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$49 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$1,051
Realized+$2,534
Unrealized−$440
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses249 / 232
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions3
Markets (closed)481 / 485
History coverage60d ⚠
Avg bet$526
Trades / day49.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 481 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 50¢ 94¢ $500 $938 +$438 (+88%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 50¢ 6¢ $500 $62 −$438 (-88%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 in June? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $41 $38 −$3 (-8%)
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 23? No 92¢ 99¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 23? Jun 23 $276 −$1 -0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 23? Jun 23 $2 −$1 -64%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $70 on June 23? Jun 23 $63 $0 -0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 23? Jun 23 $2 +$18 +900%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $78 on June 23? Jun 23 $4 $0 +14%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 23? Jun 23 $37 $0 -0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on June 23? Jun 22 $5 $0 -4%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on June 22? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $71 on June 22? Jun 22 $40 −$1 -2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 22? Jun 22 $14 −$4 -30%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 22? Jun 22 $12 −$12 -97%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 22? Jun 22 $11 −$9 -83%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $70 on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 -13%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 22? Jun 22 $4 +$2 +63%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 22? Jun 22 $71 −$8 -11%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 22? Jun 22 $45 −$8 -18%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $79 on June 22? Jun 22 $14 −$14 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $73 on June 22? Jun 22 $189 −$6 -3%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $78 on June 22? Jun 22 $2 $0 -7%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 22? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? Jun 22 $35 +$15 +42%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? Jun 21 $655 −$11 -2%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $49 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $8 −$1 -9%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $8 +$2 +20%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $131 +$8 +6%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 +$15 +75%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $26 +$6 +24%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $79 on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 -4%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $77 on June 18? Jun 18 $29 +$3 +9%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 18? Jun 18 $85 −$33 -39%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $89 +$39 +44%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $78 on June 18? Jun 18 $383 −$13 -4%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 18? Jun 18 $4 −$3 -75%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $81 on June 18? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 18? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on June 18? Jun 18 $82 $0 -0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 -24%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $76 on June 17? Jun 17 $36 +$15 +42%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $73 on June 17? Jun 17 $127 $0 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $83 on June 17? Jun 17 $6 −$3 -53%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 17? Jun 17 $38 +$2 +5%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $79 on June 17? Jun 17 $350 +$7 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $78 on June 17? Jun 17 $183 −$2 -1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 17? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 23? SELL No 92¢ $183 58m
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 23? SELL No 92¢ $92 59m
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 23? BUY No 92¢ $276 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 23? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $70 on June 23? SELL Yes 96¢ $59 1h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 23? SELL No 10¢ $9 1h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 23? SELL No 10¢ $11 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 23? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 23? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $78 on June 23? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 2h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $70 on June 23? BUY Yes 95¢ $46 3h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $78 on June 23? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 3h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 23? SELL Yes 94¢ $37 3h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 23? BUY Yes 94¢ $37 3h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $70 on June 23? SELL No 2¢ $4 5h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $70 on June 23? BUY No 2¢ $4 5h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $78 on June 23? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 5h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $78 on June 23? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 5h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $70 on June 23? BUY Yes 95¢ $13 5h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 23? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 6h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 23? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 23? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 23? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 6h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 23? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 7h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 23? BUY No 1¢ $2 8h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 23? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 9h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 23? BUY No 92¢ $12 11h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 23? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 11h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 in June? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 11h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on June 23? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,050.91 · official $1,050.91 (match) · 3500 history records