Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:13:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B4 0xb41a…3a25 crypto 21 markets active 56d ago coverage 175d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 174d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$69,222 (+52%) realized +$69,222 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +105% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +55% what you keep after slip
Net edge+55%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate41%21W / 30L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6,397per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 175d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% +$1,264
economics 26% +$204
world 18% −$7,202
other 3% +$41
culture 0% −$2
sports 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)+85.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +182.5% +155.6% 13% 13% -98.1%
≤30d 30 +182.5% +155.6% 13% 13% -98.1%
≤90d 37 +145.3% +121.9% 27% 11% -23.4%
all 51 +105.0% +85.5% 41% 14% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +85.5% 14% -15.2%
10% ← realistic here +67.7% 12% -23.3%
15% +51.5% 8% -30.7%
20% +36.7% 8% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +105% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$1,005) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -21% → late +226% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
123.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$359 vs −$343 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

175d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$69,222
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses21 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)51 / 21
History coverage175d ⚠
Avg bet$6,397
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Lille OSC win on 2025-10-05? Jun 29 $10 −$18 -173%
Ethereum Up or Down - July 20, 4AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 71-72°F on September Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-17? Jun 29 $250 −$250 -100%
Will Bob Geldof win the Irish Presidential Election? Jun 29 $34 −$18 -54%
Elon Musk tweets 35+ times Tuesday? Jun 29 $9 −$7 -75%
Will Napoli win on 2025-10-18? Jun 29 $250 −$250 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-05? Jun 29 $197 −$238 -121%
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 29 $0 +$5,756 +383742180%
Will the highest temperature in London be 73°F or higher on September Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Fergus Finlay win the Irish Presidential Election? Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-09-21? Jun 29 $253 −$247 -98%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will STAN win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jun 29 $0 −$1 -2874%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Dutch Grand Prix? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon tweet 470 or more times August 8–August 15? Jun 29 $734 −$734 -100%
Will Bertie Ahern win the Irish Presidential Election? Jun 29 $14 −$14 -100%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Lazio end in a draw? Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix? Jun 29 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times August 22–August 29? Jun 29 $70 −$70 -100%
Will SOCDEM win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electio Jun 29 $1 +$39 +6203%
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jun 29 $1 +$86 +13748%
Wimbledon Final – Alcaraz vs. Sinner Jun 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix pole? Jun 29 $964 −$964 -100%
Will Přísaha win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electi Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will AUTO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jun 29 $1 +$76 +12160%
Will Billy Kelleher win the Irish Presidential Election? Jun 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Will AC Milan vs. Bologna end in a draw? Jun 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 04 $1,005 +$2 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? May 02 $12,464 +$50 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? Apr 26 $7,277 −$7,277 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Apr 26 $19,024 +$70 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in April? Apr 11 $719 +$3 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in April? Apr 11 $921 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in March? Apr 02 $20,547 +$103 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 19 $20,427 +$123 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 01 $20,219 +$81 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? Feb 08 $992 +$8 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 08 $7,944 +$56 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Jan 02 $180 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 02 $2,961 +$39 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $6,163 +$327 +5%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 23 $6,140 +$25 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 17 $419 +$59 +14%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Dec 16 $4,910 +$25 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 02 $87 −$2 -3%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Nov 20 $1,884 +$602 +32%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in November? Nov 18 $40 +$10 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 56d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? BUY Yes 100¢ $998 56d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $7,277 63d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $498 63d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $498 63d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $9 63d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $505 63d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2,026 63d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $724 63d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $269 63d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $269 63d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,622 63d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 63d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $7 63d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2,241 63d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2,241 63d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 63d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 63d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $9,104 63d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,498 63d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $9,990 63d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $721 78d
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $922 78d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $19,024 86d
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $916 86d
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $5 86d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in April? BUY No 99¢ $719 87d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $11 102d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $354 102d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $252 102d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records