Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:58:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
B4 0xb419…bd46 world 76 markets active 1h ago coverage 485d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$81 (+1%) realized +$82 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate41%30W / 44L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$163per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$155now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 73% +$79
other 23% −$11
finance 2% +$3
politics 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
weather 0% $0
sports 0% +$10
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)+13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.1% -9.4% 62% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 31 -2.7% -11.9% 39% 6% -8.8%
≤90d 34 +56.5% +41.6% 44% 9% -8.7%
all 74 +25.6% +13.7% 41% 7% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.7% 7% -8.7%
10% +2.8% 3% -17.4%
15% -7.1% 3% -25.4%
20% -16.2% 3% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +50% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×3.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.55 per $1 lost it wins $3.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

485d coverage
Net worth$155
Realized+$82
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses30 / 44
Open positions2
Markets (closed)74 / 76
History coverage485d
Avg bet$163
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $156 $154 −$1 (-1%)
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-71%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $191 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $14 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $46 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $218 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $463 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $619 −$2 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $245 +$1 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $186 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $100 +$4 +4%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 08 $440 −$1 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $6 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $119 −$1 -1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $4 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $222 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $536 −$4 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $153 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $30 −$5 -16%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $189 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $223 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $50 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $287 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 30 $1,303 −$7 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 29 $15 −$2 -11%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $210 +$27 +13%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $210 +$3 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $1,158 −$2 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $199 +$3 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $218 +$1 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $97 +$10 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $176 +$27 +16%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 21 $177 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 12 $224 +$4 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 11 $1,060 +$8 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 11 $1,052 +$10 +1%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $1 $0 -2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jun 26 $4 −$2 -52%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jun 26 $11 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in May? May 22 $11 $0 +1%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? May 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? May 22 $14 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? May 20 $15 $0 -1%
Will the Democratic Alliance win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese May 20 $15 $0 +3%
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 9–16? May 18 $14 $0 +2%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 14 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? May 13 $3 +$1 +19%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? May 12 $15 $0 -0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 11 $15 $0 -1%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 11 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 National League Championship? May 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will Austria qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 10 $9 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $156 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $84 3h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $107 3h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $148 7h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $44 7h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $3 20h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $7 22h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $4 22h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $0 26h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $14 26h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $18 45h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $11 45h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $2 45h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $14 45h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $4 45h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $2 45h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $39 45h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $192 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $26 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 73¢ $93 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 73¢ $125 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $6 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $196 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $16 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $120 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $69 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $19 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $149 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $25 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $155.08 · official $154.25 (match) · 302 history records