Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:09:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb417…cd2b other 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 343d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate28%11W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% −$2
other 28% $0
politics 12% +$1
economics 5% $0
culture 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -20.6% -28.1% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 11 -11.6% -20.0% 18% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 11 -11.6% -20.0% 18% 0% -10.0%
all 39 -3.0% -12.3% 28% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 0% -9.6%
10% -20.7% 0% -18.2%
15% -28.3% 0% -26.1%
20% -35.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

343d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses11 / 28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage343d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $26 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $36 −$1 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $28 −$1 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 11 $31 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $58 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $3 −$1 -25%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $62 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $30 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $33 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $29 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 11% and 12% in Aug 10 $34 +$1 +2%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 16 $12 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jul 16 $11 $0 +2%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 14 $24 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 14 $1 $0 +3%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 13 $2 $0 +10%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi Jul 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? Jul 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will Octavian Berceanu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 11 $12 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 4–11? Jul 11 $12 $0 +4%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jul 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 National League Championsh Jul 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on August Jul 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will Michael McDowell win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jul 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 08 $2 $0 -12%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 08 $4 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 08 $34 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $26 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $26 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 30¢ $4 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 32¢ $4 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $27 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $28 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 63¢ $31 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 63¢ $31 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $9 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $14 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $4 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $4 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $25 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 67¢ $5 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 67¢ $26 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 67¢ $31 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $8 8d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $24 8d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $33 8d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 78¢ $30 9d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 78¢ $30 9d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $33 9d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $33 9d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $29 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $29 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 117 history records