Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T09:11:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B4
0xb417…6d8f
other · 5 markets active 1h ago
5.0score
−$214 -17%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$207 · open −$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$966
Realized−$207
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)2 / 5
History coverage14d
Avg bet$256
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%
Chart Positions 3 History 2 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$207
7 days−$207
14 days−$207
30 days−$207
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $586 $582 −$4 (-1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $337 $334 −$3 (-1%)
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 13 $250 −$250 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $40 +$43 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 96% −$213
sports 4% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $494 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $344 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $102 1h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $52 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $40 9h
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 31¢ $250 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +4.7% -5.3% 50% 50% -74.1%
≤30d 2 +4.7% -5.3% 50% 50% -74.1%
≤90d 2 +4.7% -5.3% 50% 50% -74.1%
all 2 +4.7% -5.3% 50% 50% -74.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.3% 50% -74.1%
10% -14.3% 50% -76.5%
15% -22.6% 50% -78.8%
20% -30.2% 50% -80.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $965.82 · official $965.89 (match) · 8 history records