Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:13:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb417…d931 sports 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$9,032 (-24%) realized −$9,246 · open +$105
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%21W / 18L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$957per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$587est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$325now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$415
7 days−$7,559
14 days−$8,522
30 days−$9,246
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$8,220
other 3% −$921
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -3.4% -12.6% 52% 52% -34.3%
≤30d 39 -2.3% -11.6% 54% 54% -31.7%
≤90d 39 -2.3% -11.6% 54% 54% -31.7%
all 39 -2.3% -11.6% 54% 54% -31.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 54% -31.7%
10% -20.1% 54% -38.2%
15% -27.8% 49% -44.2%
20% -34.9% 41% -49.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$1,133) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -19% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$566 vs −$1,174 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$325
Realized−$9,246
Unrealized+$105
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses21 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$587
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage26d
Avg bet$957
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 76¢ $219 $325 +$105 (+48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,006 +$831 +83%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $684 +$341 +50%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $567 −$560 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,039 −$1,026 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $300 +$200 +67%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $264 −$160 -61%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $150 +$104 +70%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $24 +$37 +154%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $513 +$303 +59%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $41 +$56 +138%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $508 +$288 +57%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $640 −$632 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1,988 −$1,943 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $2,920 −$2,914 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $3,746 −$3,705 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $14 +$11 +75%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $70 −$69 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $2,237 +$2,763 +124%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $475 +$479 +101%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $2,999 +$2,479 +83%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $1,995 −$1,957 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $1,148 −$1,133 -99%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $870 +$271 +31%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1,118 −$1,100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $994 +$1,003 +101%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $532 −$526 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $1,015 −$1,000 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $17 +$22 +129%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $986 −$986 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $980 −$967 -99%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $513 +$459 +89%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $546 −$538 -98%
Counter-Strike: magic vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 28 $1,358 −$1,341 -99%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $587 −$580 -99%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC end in a draw? May 24 $2,046 +$734 +36%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner May 22 $595 +$405 +68%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION - Game 2 Winner May 21 $418 +$452 +108%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 20 $1,617 +$398 +25%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Group Sta May 20 $546 +$254 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $223 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 54¢ $1,006 11h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 100¢ $1,026 12h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 66¢ $684 21h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 56¢ $567 21h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $1,039 23h
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) SELL Team Falcons 82¢ $100 37h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Aurora Gaming 73¢ $253 37h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $69 38h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $75 38h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $15 38h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $22 38h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $18 38h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $30 38h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $7 38h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $63 38h
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 52¢ $264 39h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 42¢ $150 39h
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL B8 100¢ $62 40h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Natus Vincere 66¢ $817 40h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 29¢ $35 40h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 29¢ $30 40h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 29¢ $32 40h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 12¢ $12 40h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 12¢ $1 40h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 12¢ $28 40h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 41¢ $9 41h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 41¢ $5 41h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 41¢ $1 41h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 41¢ $20 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $324.65 · official $324.65 (match) · 193 history records