Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T05:11:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb416…a676 other 1312 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 8d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (319 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$4,541 (+49%) realized +$4,541 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate57%640W / 488L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day319.1pace
Kalshi-fit26%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 9d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% +$2,437
crypto 26% +$1,193
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (319 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 970 +19.4% +8.0% 51% 51% +5.7%
≤30d 1128 +28.2% +16.0% 57% 56% +9.3%
≤90d 1128 +28.2% +16.0% 57% 56% +9.3%
all 1128 +28.2% +16.0% 57% 56% +9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover319.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +16.0% 56% +9.3%
10% ← realistic here +4.9% 53% -1.1%
15% -5.2% 48% -10.7%
20% -14.5% 42% -19.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +94% → late -38% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized+$4,541
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses640 / 488
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1128 / 1312
History coverage9d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day319.1
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit26%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1128 Trades
no open positions (496 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 27 $12 +$8 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 27 $6 +$4 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 27 $6 +$4 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 27 $3 +$2 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +45%
BNB Up or Down - May 28, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 +100%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 27 $0 +$1 +317%
BNB Up or Down - June 4, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 +89%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +49%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 27 $0 +$1 +400%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 +67%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 23, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 +82%
BNB Up or Down - June 4, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 +56%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +37%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 23, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 +178%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 +127%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 +117%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 +170%
BNB Up or Down - May 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 +25%
XRP Up or Down - May 25, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 +22%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 +108%
BNB Up or Down - June 1, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 +257%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 24, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 +127%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 +11%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 +18%
BNB Up or Down - May 28, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 +150%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 +92%
XRP Up or Down - May 22, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 +117%
BNB Up or Down - May 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 +43%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 30, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 +117%
BNB Up or Down - May 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 +82%
XRP Up or Down - May 24, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 +28%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 +526%
BNB Up or Down - June 8, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 +30%
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 +163%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 +138%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 25, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 +75%
BNB Up or Down - June 2, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 +96%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 27 $16 −$16 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 27, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
BNB Up or Down - June 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 26m
BNB Up or Down - June 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 26m
BNB Up or Down - June 27, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 41m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 45m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 51m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 26, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $6 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 26, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 26, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 26, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 26, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 26, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $0 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 26, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 26, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 26, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $0 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 26, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 26, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 26, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $2 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 26, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $0 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 26, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 26, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 26, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $0 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 26, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.04 · official $45.00 · 3500 history records