Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:51:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B4 0xb414…7211 crypto 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-3%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate93%26W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% $0
world 37% $0
other 14% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 3 -6.0% -14.9% 33% 0% -14.0%
≤90d 19 -0.8% -10.3% 89% 0% -12.3%
all 28 -0.5% -10.0% 93% 0% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -11.8%
10% -18.6% 0% -20.2%
15% -26.5% 0% -27.9%
20% -33.7% 0% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$16 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses26 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage102d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 18 $129 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $107 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 31 $91 −$16 -18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on April 10? May 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on April 9? Apr 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 8? Apr 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on April 7? Apr 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on April 3? Apr 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 2? Apr 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on April 1? Apr 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on March 31? Apr 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on March 30? Mar 31 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on March 27? Mar 30 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on March 26? Mar 27 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 25? Mar 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 24? Mar 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,800 on March 23? Mar 24 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on March 21? Mar 23 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on March 20? Mar 21 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on March 19? Mar 20 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 18? Mar 20 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 17? Mar 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on March 14? Mar 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 9? Mar 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 16? Mar 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on March 11? Mar 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on March 13? Mar 17 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on March 8? Mar 09 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $129 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $129 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $19 17d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $88 17d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $107 17d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $12 18d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 18d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 18d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $16 64d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $24 64d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on April 10? BUY No 100¢ $11 69d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on April 9? BUY No 100¢ $10 70d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $14 71d
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on April 7? BUY No 100¢ $14 72d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on April 3? BUY No 100¢ $13 76d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 2? BUY No 100¢ $10 77d
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on April 1? BUY No 100¢ $14 78d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on March 31? BUY No 100¢ $12 79d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on March 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $15 80d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on March 27? BUY No 100¢ $13 83d
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on March 26? BUY No 100¢ $11 84d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 85d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 24? BUY No 100¢ $12 86d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,800 on March 23? BUY No 100¢ $14 87d
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on March 21? BUY No 100¢ $12 89d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on March 20? BUY No 100¢ $13 90d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on March 19? BUY No 100¢ $13 91d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 92d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 17? BUY No 100¢ $11 93d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 16? BUY No 100¢ $11 94d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 62 history records