Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:25:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb414…c441 crypto 749 markets active 2h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$45 (-4%) realized −$46 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate42%314W / 433L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day19.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$25
14 days−$10
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$93
sports 5% +$5
other 2% −$4
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 -33.7% -40.0% 28% 28% -37.0%
≤30d 266 -13.0% -21.3% 41% 39% -18.3%
≤90d 747 -12.7% -21.0% 42% 39% -18.1%
all 747 -12.7% -21.0% 42% 39% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.0% 39% -18.1%
10% -28.6% 35% -25.9%
15% -35.5% 29% -33.1%
20% -41.8% 23% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses314 / 433
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)747 / 749
History coverage66d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day19.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 747 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Over 40¢ 60¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+51%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Under 63¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 120 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $1 +$1 +64%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -75%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $2 +$1 +70%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +61%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +67%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $1 $0 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 +$2 +79%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Japan to score first vs. Netherlands? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $2 −$1 -62%
Johannus Monday vs. Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$2 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $1 +$1 +101%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 12 $1 +$3 +325%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$4 +419%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +130%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $3 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 63¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 10h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Under 87¢ $2 11h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 6¢ $0 11h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 23¢ $1 11h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 52¢ $1 11h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 58¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 20h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 52¢ $1 20h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $2 20h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 21h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $1 22h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 67¢ $1 22h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.24 · official $5.28 (match) · 1605 history records