Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:55:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B4 0xb413…adc3 crypto 161 markets active 2h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,196 (-10%) realized −$1,022 · open −$174
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate19%30W / 126L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day11.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$438now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$121
7 days+$121
14 days+$121
30 days−$772
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$1,783
other 6% −$289
sports 1% +$326
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-24.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -68.6% -71.6% 9% 9% +23.0%
≤30d 20 -82.7% -84.4% 5% 5% -66.3%
≤90d 156 -16.1% -24.1% 19% 19% -22.3%
all 156 -16.1% -24.1% 19% 19% -22.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.1% 19% -22.3%
10% -31.4% 19% -29.8%
15% -38.0% 19% -36.6%
20% -44.1% 19% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -43% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$241 vs −$70 · ×3.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$438
Realized−$1,022
Unrealized−$174
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses30 / 126
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)156 / 161
History coverage38d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 156 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Yes 51¢ 50¢ $112 $111 −$1 (-1%)
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Yes 20¢ 21¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Yes 47¢ 24¢ $200 $104 −$96 (-48%)
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ assists Yes 31¢ 21¢ $100 $68 −$32 (-32%)
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals Yes 44¢ 22¢ $100 $50 −$50 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 113 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 22 $21 −$20 -94%
Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals Jun 22 $25 −$25 -98%
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists Jun 22 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $133 +$326 +246%
Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goals Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Dani Olmo: 1+ goals Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Nico Williams: 1+ goals Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 04 $20 −$19 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 04 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 04 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 04 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 04 $424 −$400 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 04 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 04 $133 −$125 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 04 $79 −$75 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 04 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 16 $234 −$222 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 16 $208 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 16 $340 −$325 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 16 $176 −$169 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 16 $106 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 16 $52 +$90 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 16 $79 −$75 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 16 $72 +$135 +187%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 16 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 16 $79 −$75 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 16 $79 −$75 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 16 $79 −$75 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 16 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 16 $79 −$75 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 16 $80 −$75 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 16 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 16 $79 −$75 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 15 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 15 $27 +$107 +398%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET May 15 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET May 15 $79 +$74 +94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 15 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 15 $52 −$50 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 15 $26 −$25 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 15 $26 −$25 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 15 $78 −$75 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 15 $52 −$50 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 15 $79 −$75 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 15 $52 −$50 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 15 $26 −$25 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 51¢ $114 1h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 2h
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 44¢ $102 2h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ assists BUY Yes 31¢ $102 2h
Michael Olise: 1+ goals BUY Yes 47¢ $102 2h
Michael Olise: 1+ goals BUY Yes 47¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $438.12 · official $400.58 · 494 history records