Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:35:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B4 0xb410…e482 sports 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,320 (-19%) realized −$3,285 · open −$35
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%14W / 16L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$570per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$120est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,190now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$1,402
30 days+$1,402
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$3,391
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-23.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 10 +5.0% -5.0% 60% 60% +11.3%
≤90d 15 +4.8% -5.2% 67% 67% +1.1%
all 30 -15.9% -23.9% 47% 47% -29.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.9% 47% -29.3%
10% -31.2% 40% -36.0%
15% -37.8% 37% -42.2%
20% -43.9% 30% -47.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$843) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -37% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$264 vs −$441 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$2,190
Realized−$3,285
Unrealized−$35
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses14 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$120
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage154d
Avg bet$570
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova Jessica Pegula 61¢ 60¢ $2,225 $2,190 −$35 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $174 +$149 +86%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $250 +$224 +90%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1,132 +$700 +62%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $854 −$843 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $588 −$578 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $470 +$530 +113%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $1,476 +$602 +41%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $23 −$23 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $1,129 +$671 +60%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $30 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner May 13 $77 +$20 +26%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner May 13 $2,254 +$385 +17%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner May 13 $750 −$744 -99%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants May 13 $33 +$22 +67%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Jannik Sinner Apr 10 $1,055 +$124 +12%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - LCK Challengers Leag Feb 28 $2 +$5 +223%
Mexican Open, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Yibing Wu Feb 28 $7 +$3 +41%
Mexican Open, Qualification: Elias Ymer vs Nicolas Mejia Feb 28 $6 +$4 +82%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Versus Playoffs Feb 22 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - LCK Ch Feb 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Mexican Open, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Sho Shimabukuro Feb 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Dubai Tennis Championships: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Zhizhen Zhang Feb 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Mexican Open, Qualification: Patrick Kypson vs Coleman Wong Feb 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Suns vs. 76ers Jan 21 $240 +$259 +108%
Celtics vs. Pistons Jan 19 $514 −$514 -100%
Bucks vs. Hawks Jan 19 $2,527 −$2,527 -100%
Thunder vs. Cavaliers Jan 19 $409 −$409 -100%
Magic vs. Grizzlies Jan 18 $413 −$413 -100%
Raptors vs. Lakers Jan 18 $24 $0 -2%
Hornets vs. Nuggets Jan 18 $943 −$943 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 61¢ $4 1h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 61¢ $240 1h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 61¢ $14 1h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 61¢ $49 1h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 61¢ $41 1h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 62¢ $63 1h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 62¢ $243 1h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 62¢ $166 1h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 61¢ $138 1h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 61¢ $231 1h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 61¢ $10 1h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 61¢ $29 1h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 61¢ $59 1h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 61¢ $79 1h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 62¢ $245 1h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 61¢ $80 1h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 61¢ $19 1h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 61¢ $56 1h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 61¢ $5 1h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 61¢ $74 1h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 62¢ $326 1h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 61¢ $80 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL FUT Esports 100¢ $323 9d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner SELL MOUZ 100¢ $473 9d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner SELL MOUZ 100¢ $1,832 9d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 61¢ $123 9d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 61¢ $617 9d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 61¢ $352 9d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 61¢ $40 9d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 53¢ $9 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,190.34 · official $2,190.34 (match) · 138 history records