Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:30:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B4
0xb410…7736
other · 961 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$3,453 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$4,411 · open +$5,478
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$33,630
Realized−$4,411
Unrealized+$5,478
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses754 / 52
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions181
Markets (closed)806 / 961
History coverage70d
Avg bet$261
Trades / day35.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit21%
Chart Positions 181 History 806 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$767
7 days+$1,491
14 days+$1,743
30 days−$6,604
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 94¢ $1,752 $1,737 −$14 (-1%)
Will France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 83¢ $1,415 $1,481 +$67 (+5%)
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No 57¢ 92¢ $842 $1,356 +$514 (+61%)
Will Kylian Mbappé record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 75¢ 72¢ $1,151 $1,098 −$53 (-5%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 10¢ $685 $1,041 +$356 (+52%)
Will Bosnia & Herzegovina win the World Cup? No 98¢ 99¢ $977 $989 +$12 (+1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 8¢ $547 $892 +$345 (+63%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 16¢ $94 $874 +$780 (+828%)
Will Luka Modrić score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 49¢ 55¢ $787 $873 +$86 (+11%)
Will Ilie Bolojan be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No 96¢ 95¢ $747 $737 −$10 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 8¢ $452 $734 +$282 (+62%)
Will Cătălin Predoiu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No 97¢ 97¢ $680 $678 −$2 (-0%)
Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 97¢ $651 $661 +$9 (+1%)
Will Scotland win the World Cup? No 97¢ 99¢ $638 $651 +$13 (+2%)
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No 92¢ 81¢ $670 $590 −$81 (-12%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $385 $550 +$165 (+43%)
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 97¢ $537 $547 +$10 (+2%)
No one announced as next James Bond? Yes 3¢ 87¢ $18 $539 +$521 (+2860%)
Will João Neves win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 94¢ $550 $538 −$12 (-2%)
Will Dan Motreanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No 98¢ 98¢ $521 $519 −$1 (-0%)
Will England be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 96¢ 96¢ $479 $476 −$2 (-1%)
Will Mexico reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 74¢ 72¢ $443 $434 −$9 (-2%)
Will Takefusa Kubo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 48¢ 53¢ $376 $415 +$39 (+10%)
Will Endrick score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 68¢ $300 $337 +$37 (+12%)
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 94¢ 95¢ $328 $332 +$4 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Peru win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $88 −$88 -100%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $88 −$88 -100%
Will Canada be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? Jun 12 $55 +$2 +4%
Will Uruguay go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 12 $7 +$23 +356%
Will Jordan go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 12 $66 +$1 +2%
Will Norway go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 12 $9 +$10 +110%
Will Netherlands go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 12 $10 +$12 +121%
Will Florian Wirtz score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $0 $0 +2%
Will Richarlison win the Bronze Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $27 $0 +0%
Will Egypt be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? Jun 12 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Ecuador go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 12 $34 +$7 +20%
Will Harry Kane score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $47 +$15 +32%
Will Lionel Messi score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $3 $0 +12%
Will Lionel Messi score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $39 +$11 +29%
Will Joël Kiassumbua record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA Wor Jun 12 $1 $0 +21%
Will Norway win the World Cup? Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Will Canada win the World Cup? Jun 12 $72 +$1 +2%
Will Breel Embolo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $0 $0 +10%
Will Leandro Trossard score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $81 +$28 +34%
Will Riyad Mahrez record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $105 +$1 +1%
Will Curacao reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 11 $88 +$1 +2%
Will Sweden be the highest-scoring team in Group F during the Group St Jun 11 $11 +$2 +16%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $184 +$825 +450%
Will Santiago Giménez record the most goal contributions at the 2026 F Jun 10 $53 +$1 +3%
Will Meshaal Barsham record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA Wor Jun 10 $53 $0 +0%
Will Xavi Simons record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $29 +$1 +2%
Tom Holland announced as next James Bond? Jun 10 $86 +$1 +1%
Will Brahim Díaz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $6 $0 +5%
Will Harry Kane record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA Wo Jun 09 $82 +$10 +12%
Will Delia Velculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 09 $212 +$48 +23%
Will Belgium score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $3 $0 +2%
Will "Sara Chase" win Best Leading Actress in a Musical at the 2026 To Jun 08 $366 +$28 +8%
Will "Mark Strong" win Best Leading Actor in a Play at the 2026 Tony A Jun 08 $400 $0 +0%
Will "The Balusters" win Best Play at the 2026 Tony Awards? Jun 08 $511 +$89 +18%
Will "Schmigadoon!" win Best Original Score at the 2026 Tony Awards? Jun 08 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Will "Heather Gilbert (The Fear of 13)" win Best Lighting Design of a Jun 08 $246 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $44 +$530 +1217%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Roland Garros Women's Singles? Jun 06 $12 +$6 +46%
Will Fermín López score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $172 +$1 +1%
Will Kaoru Mitoma score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $135 +$1 +1%
Will Phil Foden score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $131 +$2 +2%
Will Robert Lewandowski score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $171 +$2 +1%
Will Raluca Turcan be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 06 $313 +$6 +2%
Will Anca Dragu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 05 $257 +$4 +2%
Will Cole Palmer score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $485 +$28 +6%
Will Diana Shnaider win the 2026 Roland Garros Women's Singles? Jun 04 $1,207 +$1 +0%
Will Victor Ponta be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 04 $97 +$2 +3%
Will Kaiki be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list? Jun 04 $320 +$5 +2%
Will Burna Boy perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? Jun 03 $2 +$5 +228%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 73% +$395
sports 21% +$771
politics 3% +$362
world 2% −$303
economics 0% +$2
weather 0% +$4
crypto 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will João Neves win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $34 2m
Will João Neves win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $72 3m
Will Algeria win the World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $5 8m
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 36¢ $8 18m
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 60¢ $15 18m
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 37¢ $124 19m
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 60¢ $202 19m
Will Canada be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $46 27m
Will Uruguay go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? SELL Yes 32¢ $30 29m
Will Jordan go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? SELL No 96¢ $67 31m
Will Norway go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? SELL Yes 33¢ $19 34m
Will Netherlands go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? SELL Yes 57¢ $23 35m
Will Florian Wirtz score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 86¢ $0 43m
Will Ivory Coast win the World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $29 48m
Will Ivory Coast win the World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $30 48m
Will Richarlison win the Bronze Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $27 48m
Will Ghana win the World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $11 49m
Will Canada be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $11 50m
Will Egypt win the World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $30 50m
Will Egypt be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $35 50m
Will Egypt be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $8 50m
Will Egypt win the World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $11 50m
Will Czechia win the World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $103 51m
Will Christian Pulisic score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 75¢ $79 1h
Will Christian Pulisic score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 49¢ $61 1h
Will Reece James be in England's Starting 11? BUY No 13¢ $1 1h
Will Jude Bellingham be in England's Starting 11? BUY No 18¢ $2 1h
Will Iraq be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 Wor BUY No 76¢ $31 1h
Will Ecuador go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? SELL No 69¢ $41 1h
Will Ecuador go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY No 57¢ $34 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +51.6% +37.2% 93% 36% +12.6%
≤30d 263 +12.1% +1.4% 85% 16% -16.9%
≤90d 806 +6.6% -3.5% 94% 8% -11.4%
all 806 +6.6% -3.5% 94% 8% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover35.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.5% 8% -11.4%
10% ← realistic here -12.8% 5% -19.9%
15% -21.2% 4% -27.7%
20% -28.9% 3% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33,630.05 · official $33,615.29 (match) · 3500 history records