Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:25:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B4 0xb40f…f1ae sports 158 markets active 1h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$184 (-10%) realized −$157 · open −$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate30%47W / 110L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day14.5pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$478now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% −$46
world 29% −$27
crypto 17% −$73
other 7% −$88
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 157 -13.5% -21.8% 30% 27% -24.4%
all 157 -13.5% -21.8% 30% 27% -24.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.8% 27% -24.4%
10% -29.2% 21% -31.6%
15% -36.1% 18% -38.2%
20% -42.3% 14% -44.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$478
Realized−$157
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses47 / 110
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)157 / 158
History coverage72d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day14.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 157 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Yes 83¢ 79¢ $505 $478 −$27 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs GenOne (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In May 03 $7 −$7 -100%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Vici Gaming (BO5) - ACL X ESL Challenger Ch May 03 $5 +$1 +11%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LNG Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana May 03 $3 −$2 -58%
LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 03 $4 +$6 +145%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - ACL X ESL Challenger Chin May 03 $5 +$1 +22%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B Apr 30 $20 −$2 -10%
LoL: Myth Esports vs mCon esports (BO3) - Road Of Legends Regular Seas Apr 30 $56 −$45 -81%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs FOKUS (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2: Cl Apr 30 $40 +$21 +51%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A Apr 30 $10 +$2 +22%
Will Trump dance today? Apr 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 28, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Apr 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 28, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Apr 28 $2 $0 +18%
Solana Up or Down - April 28, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Apr 28 $2 −$2 -91%
Solana Up or Down - April 27, 4PM ET Apr 27 $15 −$11 -77%
Solana Up or Down - April 27, 5PM ET Apr 27 $4 +$1 +17%
Solana Up or Down - April 27, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Apr 27 $5 +$5 +97%
Solana Up or Down - April 27, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Apr 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 27, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Apr 27 $10 +$4 +37%
Solana Up or Down - April 27, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Apr 27 $10 −$10 -99%
Solana Up or Down - April 27, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Apr 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 27, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Apr 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 27, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Apr 27 $5 +$4 +82%
Solana Up or Down - April 27, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Apr 27 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 27, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Apr 27 $4 +$3 +68%
Solana Up or Down - April 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Apr 27 $1 $0 +33%
Solana Up or Down - April 27, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Apr 27 $10 +$14 +135%
Solana Up or Down - April 27, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Apr 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 27, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Apr 27 $11 +$1 +10%
Solana Up or Down - April 27, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Apr 27 $5 −$2 -46%
Solana Up or Down - April 27, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Apr 27 $3 +$1 +24%
Solana Up or Down - April 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Apr 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 27, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Apr 27 $5 +$1 +24%
Solana Up or Down - April 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Apr 27 $2 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - April 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Apr 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Apr 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Apr 27 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Apr 27 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Apr 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Apr 27 $10 +$16 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Apr 27 $21 −$6 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Apr 27 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Apr 27 $8 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Apr 27 $2 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Apr 27 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Apr 27 $7 +$3 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Apr 27 $7 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Apr 27 $19 −$5 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Apr 27 $4 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Apr 27 $7 +$6 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $355 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $150 4h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Vici Gaming (BO5) - ACL X ESL Challenger Ch SELL Vici Gaming 83¢ $6 45d
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs GenOne (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In BUY GenOne 41¢ $2 45d
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs GenOne (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In BUY GenOne 52¢ $2 45d
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Vici Gaming (BO5) - ACL X ESL Challenger Ch BUY Vici Gaming 74¢ $5 45d
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs GenOne (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In BUY GenOne 70¢ $3 45d
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LNG Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana SELL ThunderTalk Gaming 10¢ $1 46d
LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 SELL HANJIN BRION 97¢ $10 46d
LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY HANJIN BRION 36¢ $1 46d
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LNG Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana BUY ThunderTalk Gaming 19¢ $1 46d
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LNG Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana BUY ThunderTalk Gaming 25¢ $2 46d
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - ACL X ESL Challenger Chin SELL Vici Gaming 96¢ $6 46d
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - ACL X ESL Challenger Chin BUY Vici Gaming 78¢ $5 46d
LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY HANJIN BRION 42¢ $1 46d
LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY HANJIN BRION 39¢ $1 46d
LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY HANJIN BRION 39¢ $1 46d
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B SELL FURIA 42¢ $18 48d
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B BUY FURIA 45¢ $20 48d
LoL: Myth Esports vs mCon esports (BO3) - Road Of Legends Regular Seas SELL mCon esports 9¢ $3 48d
LoL: Myth Esports vs mCon esports (BO3) - Road Of Legends Regular Seas SELL mCon esports 11¢ $7 48d
LoL: Myth Esports vs mCon esports (BO3) - Road Of Legends Regular Seas BUY mCon esports 31¢ $10 48d
LoL: Myth Esports vs mCon esports (BO3) - Road Of Legends Regular Seas BUY mCon esports 44¢ $10 48d
LoL: Myth Esports vs mCon esports (BO3) - Road Of Legends Regular Seas BUY mCon esports 65¢ $15 48d
LoL: Myth Esports vs mCon esports (BO3) - Road Of Legends Regular Seas BUY mCon esports 77¢ $10 48d
LoL: Myth Esports vs mCon esports (BO3) - Road Of Legends Regular Seas BUY mCon esports 79¢ $10 48d
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs FOKUS (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2: Cl SELL FOKUS 93¢ $61 48d
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs FOKUS (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2: Cl BUY FOKUS 43¢ $10 48d
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs FOKUS (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2: Cl BUY FOKUS 66¢ $10 48d
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs FOKUS (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2: Cl BUY FOKUS 72¢ $10 48d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $478.41 · official $478.41 (match) · 1104 history records