Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:39:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb40e…7cc9 weather 318 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (3339 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$165,378 (+742%) realized +$163,603 · open +$1,775
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +427% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +306% what you keep after slip
Net edge+306%after slip
Net WR89%break-even
Win rate89%41W / 5L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day3339.0pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$94,361now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% +$1,692
weather 21% +$5,415
politics 3% −$256
world 1% +$127
culture 1% −$548
finance 0% −$5
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3339 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +89%
net ROI/market (all)+377.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +427.3% +377.1% 89% 89% +117.9%
≤30d 46 +427.3% +377.1% 89% 89% +117.9%
≤90d 46 +427.3% +377.1% 89% 89% +117.9%
all 46 +427.3% +377.1% 89% 89% +117.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3339.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +377.1% 89% +117.9%
10% ← realistic here +331.4% 89% +97.0%
15% +289.7% 87% +78.0%
20% +251.5% 83% +60.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +153% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +427% · $-wt +153% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +539% → late +316% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
10.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$114 vs −$17 · ×6.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×53.54 per $1 lost it wins $53.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$94,361
Realized+$163,603
Unrealized+$1,775
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses41 / 5
Open positions340
Markets (closed)46 / 318
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$70
Trades / day3339.0
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 340 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $54,626 $57,471 +$2,845 (+5%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election? No 88¢ 98¢ $1,184 $1,315 +$131 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21? No 39¢ 100¢ $478 $1,221 +$743 (+155%)
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m? Yes 65¢ 90¢ $819 $1,135 +$316 (+39%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 21? Yes 69¢ 90¢ $848 $1,102 +$254 (+30%)
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m? No 68¢ 90¢ $725 $965 +$241 (+33%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 21? Yes 31¢ 100¢ $287 $923 +$637 (+222%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 76¢ 89¢ $777 $909 +$132 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 21? No 77¢ 100¢ $636 $824 +$188 (+30%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 21? No 75¢ 90¢ $633 $755 +$122 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 21? Yes 34¢ 100¢ $252 $747 +$496 (+197%)
Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30? No 75¢ 90¢ $605 $732 +$126 (+21%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 21? No 67¢ 100¢ $478 $709 +$231 (+48%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 21? No 78¢ 100¢ $462 $590 +$129 (+28%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 21? No 89¢ 96¢ $522 $562 +$39 (+8%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 84¢ 88¢ $528 $557 +$29 (+5%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 73¢ 76¢ $491 $509 +$18 (+4%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 76¢ 99¢ $385 $502 +$117 (+30%)
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election? Yes 70¢ 98¢ $335 $470 +$135 (+40%)
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 86¢ 98¢ $408 $466 +$58 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 22? No 91¢ 92¢ $416 $424 +$8 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 21? No 76¢ 100¢ $295 $388 +$93 (+31%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 87¢ 97¢ $322 $360 +$38 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? No 86¢ 84¢ $353 $349 −$5 (-1%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $349 $347 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 9? Jun 21 $57 −$26 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 9? Jun 21 $41 −$40 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 9? Jun 21 $9 −$10 -109%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $84 +$124 +148%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 21? Jun 21 $63 +$251 +399%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 21? Jun 21 $100 +$40 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $113 +$67 +59%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $32 +$57 +180%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C or below on June 21? Jun 21 $9 +$21 +253%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 21? Jun 21 $39 +$61 +159%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 21? Jun 21 $123 +$30 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 21? Jun 21 $40 +$90 +223%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 21? Jun 21 $98 +$130 +132%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21? Jun 21 $182 +$81 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on June 21? Jun 21 $36 +$20 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on June 21? Jun 21 $26 +$125 +488%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 21? Jun 21 $262 +$352 +134%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 21? Jun 21 $137 +$305 +223%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 21? Jun 21 $12 +$77 +671%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 21? Jun 21 $178 +$363 +204%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 21? Jun 21 $1 +$61 +4738%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C on June 21? Jun 21 $2 +$43 +1889%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on June 21? Jun 21 $29 +$53 +178%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 21? Jun 21 $70 +$39 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 21? Jun 21 $329 +$327 +100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 21? Jun 21 $219 +$140 +64%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 21? Jun 21 $42 +$322 +764%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 21? Jun 21 $11 +$27 +237%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $8 +$29 +361%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $113 +$123 +108%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $53 +$49 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $7 +$71 +992%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $55 +$94 +172%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 21? Jun 21 $124 +$145 +117%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 21? Jun 21 $15 +$15 +100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $76 +$63 +83%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $1 +$86 +9662%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on June 21? Jun 21 $0 +$103 +73517%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 21? Jun 21 $54 −$7 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 21? Jun 21 $12 +$35 +291%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $39 −$5 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 21? Jun 21 $4 +$23 +522%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 21? Jun 21 $6 +$41 +722%
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 21 $14 +$215 +1570%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 21? Jun 21 $8 +$325 +4058%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 21? Jun 21 $59 +$39 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 0m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 22? BUY Yes 25¢ $0 1m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 22? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 1m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 22? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 22? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 2m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 22? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 22? BUY No 80¢ $22 2m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 21? BUY Yes 29¢ $4 2m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 22? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 2m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 22? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 2m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 22? BUY No 72¢ $1 3m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 22? BUY No 83¢ $5 3m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 22? BUY Yes 25¢ $0 3m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 22? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 3m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 4m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 22? BUY Yes 56¢ $15 4m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 22? BUY Yes 57¢ $15 4m
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 22? BUY No 72¢ $4 5m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? BUY Yes 18¢ $0 6m
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be less than 14m? BUY No 53¢ $11 7m
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 7m
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 7m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 22? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 7m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on June 22? BUY No 91¢ $7 7m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 22? BUY No 89¢ $9 8m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 22? BUY No 80¢ $8 8m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on June 22? BUY No 74¢ $7 9m
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 74¢ $5 10m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on June 22? BUY No 74¢ $7 10m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on June 22? BUY No 74¢ $7 10m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94,361.40 · official $94,416.89 (match) · 3500 history records