Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:39:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B4 0xb40d…1474 politics 154 markets active 1h ago coverage 703d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$92 (-0%) realized −$231 · open +$139
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate57%73W / 56L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$152per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$2,423now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 63% −$105
other 19% +$222
world 12% +$157
finance 4% +$70
tech 2% −$255
crypto 1% −$129
economics 0% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +8.4% -2.0% 50% 50% -7.8%
≤30d 2 +8.4% -2.0% 50% 50% -7.8%
≤90d 6 +18.9% +7.6% 83% 67% -0.1%
all 129 -13.2% -21.4% 57% 27% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.4% 27% -9.6%
10% -28.9% 12% -18.2%
15% -35.8% 5% -26.1%
20% -42.1% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% too few recent
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$50 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

703d coverage
Net worth$2,423
Realized−$231
Unrealized+$139
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses73 / 56
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions25
Markets (closed)129 / 154
History coverage703d
Avg bet$152
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 92¢ 93¢ $542 $549 +$7 (+1%)
Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026? No 82¢ 92¢ $284 $315 +$31 (+11%)
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? Yes 44¢ 71¢ $185 $297 +$112 (+60%)
Tim Walz charged by December 31, 2026? No 77¢ 80¢ $181 $188 +$7 (+4%)
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? No 85¢ 84¢ $157 $155 −$2 (-1%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $140 $141 +$1 (+1%)
Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027? No 89¢ 85¢ $135 $129 −$6 (-4%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 78¢ 82¢ $88 $93 +$5 (+6%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 72¢ 64¢ $100 $90 −$10 (-10%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 84¢ 90¢ $80 $86 +$6 (+8%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 87¢ 99¢ $43 $49 +$6 (+13%)
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 84¢ 97¢ $40 $46 +$6 (+15%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 74¢ 84¢ $40 $45 +$5 (+13%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 89¢ 99¢ $40 $45 +$5 (+12%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 83¢ 82¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 42¢ 41¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 94¢ 99¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+5%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 95¢ 93¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-2%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? No 41¢ 44¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+9%)
Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027? Yes 32¢ 12¢ $32 $12 −$20 (-63%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 44¢ 44¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 55¢ 14¢ $20 $5 −$15 (-74%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? Yes 14¢ 13¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tim Walz resign by June 30? Jun 17 $220 −$4 -2%
Will Mallory McMorrow win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? Jun 17 $50 +$9 +19%
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? May 14 $200 +$15 +7%
Will Laura Virginia Fernández Delgado win the 2026 Costa Rican preside Apr 17 $40 +$7 +18%
Tim Walz charged by March 31, 2026? Apr 17 $60 +$3 +5%
US strike on Colombia by March 31? Apr 17 $243 +$36 +15%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026? Mar 12 $13 −$3 -25%
Will Trump & Elon reduce the deficit in 2025? Jan 17 $143 +$39 +27%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by July 31? Jan 01 $25 +$5 +19%
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be greater than 9% in the Jan 01 $40 +$291 +729%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Jan 01 $180 −$4 -2%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran in 2025? Jan 01 $54 +$3 +5%
Will Kamala Harris announce Presidential run by December 31? Jan 01 $100 +$5 +5%
Obama divorce in 2025? Jan 01 $99 +$11 +11%
Modi out in 2025? Jan 01 $104 +$6 +5%
Zohran Mamdani arrested before September? Jan 01 $140 +$5 +3%
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands in 2025? Jan 01 $140 +$16 +11%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 01 $434 +$50 +12%
US congress stock trading ban in 2025? Jan 01 $534 +$52 +10%
Will Israel annex West Bank territory in 2025? Nov 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump's approval rating hit 40% in 2025? Nov 13 $673 −$240 -36%
Will Trump make no endorsement for NYC Mayor? Oct 15 $210 −$210 -100%
Will Trump jail Elon Musk? Oct 15 $206 +$5 +2%
Will Trump end DOGE in 2025? Aug 08 $140 −$140 -100%
Epstein or Maxwell confirmed Mossad operatives in 2025? Jul 22 $140 $0 -0%
Pam Bondi out as Attorney General in July? Jul 22 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Trump release more Epstein files before August? Jul 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be less than 5%? Jul 17 $151 +$59 +39%
Will Trump's approval rating hit 43% before August? Jul 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Trump's approval rating hit 40% before August? Jul 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% before August? Jul 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Trump approval Up or Down this week? Jul 16 $20 +$6 +28%
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2025? Jul 16 $38 −$38 -100%
Trump declassifies Epstein list in first 100 days? Jul 10 $657 −$414 -63%
Gaza mass population relocation in 2025? Jul 09 $29 −$7 -25%
Will Elon call Trump a "pedophile" by Friday? Jul 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Andrew Yang join the America Party? Jul 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Mark Cuban join the America Party? Jul 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July? Jul 09 $6 +$1 +18%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July? Jul 09 $551 +$85 +16%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Jun 30 $176 +$926 +525%
Will Elon Musk create a new political party in 2025? Jun 30 $80 −$29 -36%
Will Andrew Cuomo run as a non-Democrat in the general election? Jun 26 $14 −$5 -36%
Will Iran enrich uranium to 90% before August? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
US x Iran nuclear talks resume before July? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Iran Nuke in 2025? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will anyone be charged as a result of Epstein file release? Jun 25 $279 +$7 +2%
Trump agrees to send U.S. peacekeeping force to Ukraine? Jun 24 $240 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 0% and 3% in th Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 3% and 6% in th Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 1h
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $31 1h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $30 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $10 1h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 1h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY Yes 9¢ $10 1h
Tim Walz charged by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $8 1h
Will Tim Walz resign by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $54 1h
Will Mallory McMorrow win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? SELL No 91¢ $60 1h
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 87¢ $43 33d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? BUY No 41¢ $16 33d
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 33d
Will Mallory McMorrow win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? BUY No 76¢ $50 33d
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? BUY No 83¢ $116 33d
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? SELL Yes 98¢ $80 33d
Will Tim Walz resign by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $160 33d
Will Tim Walz resign by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 33d
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 43d
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? SELL Yes 99¢ $107 43d
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? BUY No 91¢ $42 60d
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? BUY Yes 43¢ $165 60d
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? BUY Yes 92¢ $200 60d
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $10 97d
US strike on Colombia by March 31? BUY No 87¢ $243 146d
Will Laura Virginia Fernández Delgado win the 2026 Costa Rican preside BUY Yes 85¢ $40 146d
Tim Walz charged by December 31, 2026? SELL No 64¢ $45 146d
Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $101 146d
Will Tim Walz resign by June 30? BUY Yes 16¢ $20 146d
Tim Walz charged by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $25 150d
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 78¢ $88 150d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,423.36 · official $2,423.36 (match) · 729 history records