Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T07:07:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B4 0xb408…fcb1 world 252 markets active 1h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$130 (+2%) realized +$146 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate53%112W / 101L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$665now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days−$13
14 days+$277
30 days+$252
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 76% −$40
other 9% +$5
sports 7% +$44
crypto 3% +$69
politics 2% +$7
finance 1% −$2
economics 1% +$1
tech 0% +$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -22.3% -29.7% 67% 0% -14.9%
≤30d 55 -9.8% -18.4% 55% 40% +3.6%
≤90d 193 -13.9% -22.1% 52% 31% -7.7%
all 213 -7.3% -16.1% 53% 32% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 32% -7.4%
10% -24.1% 20% -16.3%
15% -31.5% 15% -24.4%
20% -38.2% 12% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$7 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$665
Realized+$146
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses112 / 101
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions39
Markets (closed)213 / 252
History coverage142d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 39 History 213 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 89¢ 100¢ $71 $80 +$9 (+12%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 73¢ 88¢ $55 $66 +$11 (+20%)
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 96¢ $46 $48 +$2 (+3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 85¢ $49 $47 −$2 (-4%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 86¢ 92¢ $43 $46 +$3 (+8%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 55¢ 60¢ $39 $42 +$4 (+10%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $36 $38 +$2 (+6%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 99¢ $27 $30 +$3 (+11%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No 85¢ 90¢ $26 $27 +$1 (+5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 26¢ 11¢ $66 $26 −$39 (-60%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 92¢ 100¢ $24 $26 +$2 (+9%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 93¢ 94¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $16 $18 +$1 (+7%)
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? No 86¢ 95¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+10%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 77¢ 60¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-23%)
Trump goes to space in 2026? No 95¢ 97¢ $14 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 83¢ 88¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+6%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 84¢ 100¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+19%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 56¢ 90¢ $6 $10 +$4 (+62%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 84¢ 99¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+17%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? Yes 75¢ 82¢ $8 $8 +$1 (+9%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+2%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes 38¢ 30¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Yes 23¢ 8¢ $18 $6 −$12 (-67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 25 $166 +$14 +9%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 20 $14 +$1 +4%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $35 −$28 -80%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 18 $36 −$19 -53%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 18 $3 +$1 +16%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $319 +$127 +40%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 17 $12 −$4 -29%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -85%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 16 $11 +$1 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $232 +$152 +66%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $77 +$13 +16%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $4 $0 +12%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +22%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +25%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $18 +$30 +168%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 15 $20 −$10 -50%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $34 −$26 -75%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $19 +$21 +114%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$4 +89%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 15 $9 +$6 +70%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +113%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $7 +$3 +52%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 15 $2 +$3 +133%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $10 −$8 -79%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $21 −$9 -40%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $16 +$1 +8%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +12%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +19%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $5 +$3 +50%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 12 $7 −$6 -89%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $45 +$3 +7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 11 $92 −$47 -52%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $4 +$1 +22%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $6 −$2 -23%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 06 $84 +$57 +68%
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $10 $0 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 02 $8 +$7 +97%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $70 −$9 -12%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $51 −$1 -2%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $37 +$9 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $8 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $8 4d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $6 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $13 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $6 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $8 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $8 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $0 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $8 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 72¢ $4 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? BUY Yes 66¢ $12 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? BUY Yes 66¢ $4 7d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 61¢ $15 7d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 7d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 19¢ $10 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 7d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 76¢ $4 7d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 19¢ $10 7d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 81¢ $4 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 7d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 82¢ $4 8d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 66¢ $3 8d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 8d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 96¢ $14 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $665.35 · official $665.36 (match) · 1286 history records