Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:06:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb408…f21b sports 174 markets active 2h ago coverage 486d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,011 (-7%) realized −$1,005 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate52%87W / 79L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$164now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$49
7 days−$3,228
14 days−$3,228
30 days−$3,202
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$824
politics 15% +$345
other 7% −$67
tech 5% −$248
economics 3% +$61
world 3% −$252
culture 2% −$38
crypto 1% +$42
finance 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -46.7% -51.8% 25% 25% -77.1%
≤30d 71 -39.3% -45.0% 32% 32% -74.0%
≤90d 80 -27.6% -34.5% 40% 39% -44.8%
all 166 -8.0% -16.8% 52% 51% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 51% -16.0%
10% -24.8% 43% -24.0%
15% -32.0% 32% -31.4%
20% -38.7% 22% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$65 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

486d coverage
Net worth$164
Realized−$1,005
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses87 / 79
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions6
Markets (closed)166 / 174
History coverage486d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 166 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 47¢ 42¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-12%)
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$7 +26%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$15 +73%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$20 +99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$8 +40%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$15 +76%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 +$14 +93%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $20 +$6 +31%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $20 +$16 +79%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $1,318 −$1,310 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $201 +$55 +27%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $264 −$160 -61%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Malott vs. Holland Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Alonzo Menifield vs. Zhang Mingyang (Light Heavyweigh Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will China announce a U.S. soybean purchase by May 22? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Diddy found guilty of sex trafficking? Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
UFC 318: Costa vs. Kopylov Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Will Taira win by decision? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Juan Diaz (Bantamweight, Main C Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Allen vs. de Ridder Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Rębecki vs. Duncan Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Mingyang and Sterling Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
UFC 322: Shevchenko vs. Weili (Women's Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Emmett vs. Zalal Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
UFC 319: Will Chimaev win by submission? Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $70 −$70 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Mingyang and Sumudaerji Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
OpenAI becomes a for-profit in 2025? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
UFC 318: Ige vs. Pitbull Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
UFC 319: Murphy vs. Pico Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Men's Final - Canada vs. USA Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
UFC 319: Cannonier vs. Page Jun 15 $120 −$81 -68%
Ankalaev vs. Pereira Jun 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Jun 15 $170 −$170 -100%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY 52¢ $30 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 31h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 31h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 31h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 31h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 31h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 31h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $30 31h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $20 31h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 56¢ $20 47h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 47h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY 50¢ $20 47h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $905 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $61 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $101 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Ciryl Gane 47¢ $93 3d
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 3d
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 3d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 55¢ $20 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $201 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 78¢ $201 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 81¢ $201 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $31 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $211 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $102 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $15 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $15 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $163.56 · official $193.56 · 425 history records