Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T02:00:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B4 0xb407…38e9 crypto 183 markets active 0h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$260 (+8%) realized +$269 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate57%103W / 79L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day28.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$294
7 days+$399
14 days+$399
30 days+$496
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$487
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 156 +3.7% -6.1% 51% 47% +2.6%
≤30d 182 +10.2% -0.3% 57% 52% +4.5%
≤90d 182 +10.2% -0.3% 57% 52% +4.5%
all 182 +10.2% -0.3% 57% 52% +4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.3% 52% +4.5%
10% ← realistic here -9.9% 49% -5.5%
15% -18.6% 47% -14.6%
20% -26.6% 40% -23.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$16 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$269
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses103 / 79
Open positions1
Markets (closed)182 / 183
History coverage27d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day28.7
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 182 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Down 34¢ 26¢ $40 $31 −$9 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 27 $41 +$53 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 27 $42 +$32 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 27 $73 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 27 $63 +$97 +154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 27 $31 +$16 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 27 $31 +$54 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 27 $31 +$52 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 27 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 27 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 27 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 27 $31 +$111 +356%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 27 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 27 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 27 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 27 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 27 $31 +$50 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 27 $31 +$21 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 27 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 26 $31 +$31 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 26 $31 +$29 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 26 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 26 $32 +$72 +227%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 26 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$12 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$10 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$13 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$10 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$10 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$14 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 26 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 25 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 25 $31 +$42 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 25 $17 +$35 +206%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 25 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 25 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 25 $21 +$16 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 25 $21 +$9 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 25 $21 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 25 $21 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$10 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 25 $12 +$6 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 25 $31 −$14 -44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $10 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $21 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $11 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $4 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $4 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $18 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $17 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $14 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $21 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $10 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $17 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $9 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $15 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $161 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $32 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 31m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.24 · official $27.71 · 920 history records