Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:02:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb402…25d0 world 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 305d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%6W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% $0
other 22% −$2
sports 11% $0
politics 11% $0
economics 6% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 18 -0.2% -9.7% 11% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 18 -0.2% -9.7% 11% 0% -9.7%
all 45 -0.3% -9.8% 13% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

305d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses6 / 39
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage305d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 25 $43 $0 -1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 25 $20 $0 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 24 $43 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $21 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $48 $0 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $6 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $48 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $32 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $63 −$1 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $48 +$1 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $2 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 10 $44 −$1 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $48 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $27 +$1 +4%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $9 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $47 $0 -1%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 25 $13 −$1 -6%
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? Sep 25 $10 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 25 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 25 $24 $0 -0%
US x Venezuela military engagement by September 30? Sep 24 $23 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 24 $23 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 24 $26 $0 -1%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 23 $23 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Sep 16 $23 +$1 +2%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 09 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 08 $23 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus? Sep 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Sep 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Jerome Powell in August? Sep 02 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 28 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in August? Aug 28 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 28 $22 $0 +0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Aug 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 240–254 times August 22–August 29? Aug 27 $23 −$1 -3%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 26 $22 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 25 $23 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in August? Aug 25 $13 $0 -1%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Aug 25 $25 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 25 $12 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 89¢ $43 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 90¢ $43 4h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 65¢ $4 6h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 65¢ $3 6h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 65¢ $13 6h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 66¢ $3 10h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 66¢ $17 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 71¢ $13 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 71¢ $30 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 71¢ $43 16h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $21 23h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 26h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $7 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $7 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $47 9d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $48 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $2 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $4 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $1 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $6 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 82¢ $48 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 82¢ $48 11d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $32 11d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $7 11d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $24 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 49¢ $7 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 49¢ $11 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 49¢ $7 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 49¢ $11 12d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 130 history records