trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 20 | -15.1% | -23.2% | 20% | 20% | -29.3% |
| ≤30d | 20 | -15.1% | -23.2% | 20% | 20% | -29.3% |
| ≤90d | 20 | -15.1% | -23.2% | 20% | 20% | -29.3% |
| all | 23 | -26.1% | -33.2% | 17% | 17% | -32.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -33.2% | 17% | -32.9% |
| 10% | -39.6% | 17% | -39.3% |
| 15% | -45.4% | 17% | -45.2% |
| 20% | -50.8% | 17% | -50.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 4¢ | 4¢ | $50 | $51 | +$1 (+1%) |
| Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? | Yes | 26¢ | 26¢ | $25 | $25 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Algeria? | Jun 17 | $3 | −$3 | -97% |
| Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? | Jun 17 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? | Jun 17 | $10 | −$10 | -97% |
| Exact Score: Any Other Score? | Jun 17 | $20 | +$60 | +291% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET | Jun 16 | $27 | −$25 | -94% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET | Jun 16 | $52 | −$50 | -96% |
| Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 16 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? | Jun 16 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? | Jun 16 | $10 | +$24 | +238% |
| Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 16 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? | Jun 16 | $10 | +$33 | +324% |
| Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? | Jun 15 | $10 | +$33 | +324% |
| Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 15 | $21 | −$20 | -98% |
| Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? | Jun 14 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET | Jun 12 | $26 | −$25 | -97% |
| Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 10 | $1 | −$1 | -97% |
| Puffpaw FDV above $300M one day after launch? | Jun 10 | $10 | −$7 | -69% |
| Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch? | Jun 10 | $20 | −$2 | -10% |
| Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Xi events on October 29? | Oct 29 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year? | Oct 29 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? | Oct 29 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |