Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:20:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B4 0xb401…df2a other 186 markets active 8h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 142d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$20,901 (+3%) realized +$33,641 · open −$12,740
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate63%93W / 54L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$3,528per market
Trades / day21.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$63,195now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$44
7 days+$18
14 days+$2,311
30 days+$3,469
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 59% −$8,950
other 19% +$17,866
finance 10% +$977
crypto 7% +$1,511
world 4% +$974
tech 2% −$202
culture 0% +$662
sports 0% +$57
economics 0% −$168
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -18.9% -26.6% 57% 29% -8.5%
≤30d 19 -6.5% -15.4% 68% 37% -5.2%
≤90d 109 -7.1% -15.9% 67% 22% -5.9%
all 147 -6.8% -15.7% 63% 26% -3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.7% 26% -3.1%
10% -23.8% 14% -12.4%
15% ← realistic here -31.1% 9% -20.9%
20% -37.9% 7% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$1,030) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$303 vs −$59 · ×5.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×10.25 per $1 lost it wins $10.25
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$63,195
Realized+$33,641
Unrealized−$12,740
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses93 / 54
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions39
Markets (closed)147 / 186
History coverage143d ⚠
Avg bet$3,528
Trades / day21.5
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 39 History 147 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 50¢ 77¢ $25,000 $38,375 +$13,375 (+54%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 50¢ 23¢ $25,000 $11,625 −$13,375 (-54%)
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Yes 48¢ 49¢ $2,369 $2,440 +$72 (+3%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $60 on the final trading day of June 2026? Yes 69¢ 97¢ $1,509 $2,144 +$635 (+42%)
USDE depeg by December 31? No 83¢ 92¢ $1,099 $1,205 +$106 (+10%)
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? No 80¢ 82¢ $925 $957 +$32 (+3%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 72¢ 70¢ $720 $705 −$15 (-2%)
Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $655 $658 +$2 (+0%)
DAI depeg by December 31? No 64¢ 94¢ $395 $579 +$183 (+46%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $75 on the final trading day of June 2026? Yes 71¢ 45¢ $872 $553 −$319 (-37%)
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? No 88¢ 98¢ $494 $549 +$54 (+11%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? No 40¢ 23¢ $803 $461 −$342 (-43%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $56 on the final trading day of June 2026? Yes 50¢ 98¢ $228 $445 +$218 (+96%)
USD0 depeg by December 31? No 75¢ 88¢ $329 $387 +$58 (+18%)
GHO depeg by December 31? No 70¢ 88¢ $275 $345 +$70 (+26%)
Will Ethena reach $0.60 by December 31, 2026? No 87¢ 92¢ $244 $255 +$11 (+5%)
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Yes 48¢ 50¢ $201 $207 +$6 (+3%)
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by July 31? No 87¢ 92¢ $174 $183 +$9 (+5%)
Will Ethena reach $0.44 by December 31, 2026? No 83¢ 81¢ $184 $181 −$4 (-2%)
USDS depeg by December 31? No 55¢ 94¢ $95 $161 +$66 (+69%)
Will Ethena dip to $0.04 by December 31, 2026? No 50¢ 43¢ $170 $146 −$24 (-14%)
Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by June 30? No 84¢ 91¢ $100 $109 +$9 (+9%)
Will the Republican Party win the GA-01 House seat? Yes 85¢ 88¢ $97 $100 +$3 (+3%)
Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026? Yes 51¢ 42¢ $101 $83 −$18 (-18%)
Will Ethena reach $0.32 by December 31, 2026? No 50¢ 84¢ $35 $60 +$24 (+68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $1,282 +$117 +9%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $340 −$125 -37%
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? Jun 22 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 35% and 39.9%? Jun 16 $10 +$3 +33%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $85 on the final trading day of June 2 Jun 16 $58 +$54 +94%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $70 on the final trading day of June 2 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -88%
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by June 30? Jun 16 $76 +$6 +8%
Will Gold (GC) settle over $6,200 on the final trading day of June 202 Jun 14 $188 +$4 +2%
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between Jun 13 $62,544 +$2,241 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $900 +$40 +4%
Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027? Jun 11 $14 +$8 +61%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? Jun 07 $140 +$56 +40%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $195 +$70 +36%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $366 +$10 +3%
Will Argentina’s annual inflation be less than 20%? Jun 06 $4 +$1 +30%
Ethereum flipped in 2026? Jun 05 $6,230 +$1,348 +22%
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $459 −$241 -52%
Will Cursor be acquired before 2027? Jun 04 $237 −$87 -37%
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026? May 29 $55 −$1 -2%
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be below 60 May 19 $1,005 $0 -0%
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between May 16 $31,501 +$1,968 +6%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 16 $1,609 +$291 +18%
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.00–2.25 in April? May 13 $684 −$8 -1%
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.50–2.75 in April? May 12 $1,018 −$18 -2%
Will the Labour Party win at least 500 council seat elections in the 2 May 12 $64 $0 +0%
Will the Labour Party win at least 600 council seat elections in the 2 May 12 $116 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the second-most council seat elections May 12 $119 +$1 +1%
Will the Conservative Party win at least 300 council seat elections in May 12 $136 $0 +0%
Will the Labour Party win the second-most council seat elections in th May 12 $283 +$1 +0%
Will the Green Party win at least 800 council seat elections in the 20 May 12 $305 $0 +0%
Will the Green Party win at least 900 council seat elections in the 20 May 12 $339 $0 +0%
Will the Labour Party win at least 300 council seat elections in the 2 May 12 $492 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Democrats win at least 600 council seat elections in May 12 $758 +$1 +0%
Will the Labour Party win at least 400 council seat elections in the 2 May 12 $897 +$1 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win at least 500 council seat elections in May 12 $1,011 +$1 +0%
Will Reform UK win at least 1600 council seat elections in the 2026 Un May 12 $12,015 +$276 +2%
Will the Conservative Party win at least 400 council seat elections in May 12 $1,369 +$1 +0%
Will the Liberal Democrats win at least 700 council seat elections in May 12 $1,370 +$2 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win at least 600 council seat elections in May 12 $1,560 +$2 +0%
Will the Green Party win at least 500 council seat elections in the 20 May 12 $1,757 +$12 +1%
Will the Liberal Democrats win at least 800 council seat elections in May 12 $2,053 −$7 -0%
Will Reform UK win at least 1800 council seat elections in the 2026 Un May 12 $2,109 +$9 +0%
Will the Green Party win at least 700 council seat elections in the 20 May 12 $2,348 +$68 +3%
Will the Labour Party win at least 700 council seat elections in the 2 May 12 $3,843 +$23 +1%
Will Reform UK win at least 2000 council seat elections in the 2026 Un May 12 $9,990 +$10 +0%
Will Reform UK win at least 2200 council seat elections in the 2026 Un May 12 $10,132 +$10 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 12 $36 −$36 -100%
USD1 depeg by December 31? May 11 $1,178 +$153 +13%
Will the Green Party win at least 600 council seat elections in the 20 May 10 $370 +$48 +13%
Will the Liberal Democrats win at least 900 council seat elections in May 09 $1,162 +$81 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 25¢ $0 7h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 25¢ $0 7h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 25¢ $0 7h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 25¢ $0 7h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 25¢ $1 7h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 25¢ $0 7h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 25¢ $0 7h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 25¢ $0 7h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 25¢ $0 7h
Will the Democratic Party win the GA-01 House seat? BUY Yes 11¢ $13 8h
Will the Republican Party win the GA-01 House seat? BUY Yes 85¢ $98 8h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY No $21 10h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY No $0 10h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY No $0 10h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY No $74 10h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY No $4 10h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY No $0 10h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY No $0 10h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY No $0 10h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY No $0 10h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No $9 11h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No $15 11h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No $7 11h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No $18 11h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No $2 11h
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? BUY No $20 12h
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? BUY No $0 15h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $870 16h
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? BUY No $0 17h
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? BUY No $5 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63,194.51 · official $63,201.00 (match) · 3500 history records