Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:51:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb400…78e2 sports 6 markets active 0h ago coverage 37d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$36 (-8%) realized +$54 · open −$90
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 37d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$119
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -10.4% -18.9% 50% 50% -41.0%
≤30d 2 -10.4% -18.9% 50% 50% -41.0%
≤90d 5 +20.3% +8.8% 40% 40% -34.4%
all 5 +20.3% +8.8% 40% 40% -34.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.8% 40% -34.4%
10% -1.6% 40% -40.7%
15% -11.1% 40% -46.4%
20% -19.8% 40% -51.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$21 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized+$54
Unrealized−$90
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage37d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs G2 79¢ 11¢ $104 $15 −$90 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $47 −$46 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $26 +$21 +79%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Liquid (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 13 $15 −$1 -4%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 13 $5 +$11 +226%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.53 · official $14.53 (match) · 15 history records