Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:56:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb3ff…ec82 sports 380 markets active 2h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$98 (+1%) realized +$100 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate47%175W / 200L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day11.3pace
Fees−$113est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$161now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$44
7 days−$24
14 days−$24
30 days−$383
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$246
world 8% +$1
other 6% −$42
crypto 4% −$126
culture 3% −$25
politics 3% −$6
finance 1% −$3
tech 1% −$41
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -8.3% -17.0% 44% 44% -18.2%
≤30d 91 -16.7% -24.7% 41% 41% -26.0%
≤90d 375 -1.9% -11.2% 47% 42% -9.5%
all 375 -1.9% -11.2% 47% 42% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 42% -9.5%
10% -19.7% 41% -18.1%
15% -27.5% 41% -26.1%
20% -34.6% 40% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$17 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$161
Realized+$100
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses175 / 200
Est. fees paid−$113
Open positions5
Markets (closed)375 / 380
History coverage61d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 375 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Tampa Bay Rays 55¢ 55¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 53¢ 52¢ $39 $38 −$1 (-3%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks 56¢ 56¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins San Francisco Giants 57¢ 56¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Houston Astros 56¢ 56¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 66 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 21 $25 −$2 -7%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 21 $30 −$1 -5%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 20 $11 +$8 +73%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 20 $11 −$11 -99%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 20 $8 −$8 -99%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 20 $8 −$8 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 20 $6 +$4 +67%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 19 $7 −$7 -99%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 19 $7 +$6 +82%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 19 $6 −$1 -11%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 19 $5 +$5 +99%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 19 $6 +$5 +90%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 18 $6 −$6 -98%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 18 $6 +$8 +124%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $6 +$5 +83%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 18 $6 +$6 +105%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $6 −$6 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $5 +$4 +70%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $5 +$5 +101%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 +$7 +137%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $5 +$3 +65%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 16 $5 +$5 +98%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $5 +$3 +55%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $5 +$5 +93%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 02 $25 +$19 +73%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 01 $20 −$20 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 01 $25 −$25 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 01 $25 −$25 -99%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 01 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 01 $25 +$23 +90%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 Jun 01 $25 +$22 +86%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 01 $25 +$24 +93%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics May 31 $10 −$10 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 31 $30 +$24 +79%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds May 31 $30 +$24 +79%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies May 31 $10 −$10 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers May 30 $36 +$31 +88%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals May 30 $30 −$30 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros May 30 $30 −$30 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 30 $30 +$20 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) SELL Philadelphia Phillies 45¢ $24 1h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 50¢ $29 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY San Francisco Giants 57¢ $30 2h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 56¢ $30 2h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 56¢ $25 2h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 55¢ $40 3h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 53¢ $40 3h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 47¢ $25 3h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 51¢ $30 3h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 53¢ $11 23h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 57¢ $11 23h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 54¢ $8 23h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 56¢ $10 23h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 50¢ $8 23h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 59¢ $6 42h
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) BUY Detroit Tigers 48¢ $5 42h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY San Francisco Giants 49¢ $5 42h
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 47¢ $5 43h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 57¢ $7 43h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs SELL Chicago Cubs 100¢ $13 43h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 55¢ $5 2d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 54¢ $7 2d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL Atlanta Braves 52¢ $5 2d
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) SELL Athletics 93¢ $9 2d
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) SELL Athletics 93¢ $1 2d
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) BUY Athletics 46¢ $5 2d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 57¢ $6 2d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 52¢ $6 2d
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 45¢ $6 2d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 51¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $160.78 · official $160.79 (match) · 881 history records