Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:18:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B3 0xb3fc…c6b8 other 112 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$32 (-0%) realized −$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate10%11W / 99L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$163per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$129now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$36
politics 19% −$4
economics 6% −$1
sports 6% +$7
tech 5% −$1
world 4% −$1
culture 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 16 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 110 -0.6% -10.1% 10% 6% -9.7%
all 110 -0.6% -10.1% 10% 6% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 6% -9.7%
10% -18.7% 6% -18.3%
15% -26.5% 5% -26.2%
20% -33.7% 5% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×5.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$129
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses11 / 99
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)110 / 112
History coverage88d
Avg bet$163
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $103 $103 −$0 (-0%)
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $21 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 16 $29 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $51 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $394 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $28 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $26 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $21 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 02 $38 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? Jun 02 $60 $0 +0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $19 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $21 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 29 $32 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 24 $26 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? May 23 $32 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $331 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $480 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 17 $160 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 16 $162 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 15 $166 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 14 $159 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 14 $155 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $154 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 10 $496 −$1 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 10 $153 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 09 $153 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $338 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $161 $0 -0%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 07 $166 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $304 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 05 $155 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $482 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $152 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $154 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $155 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $323 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in April? May 01 $18 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $337 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 29 $169 $0 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $166 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $165 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $339 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 18 $306 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $342 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 16 $154 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $168 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $168 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $360 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $169 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $158 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $26 1h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $21 27h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $21 31h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $29 2d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $29 2d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $103 2d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $24 7d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $24 7d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $32 7d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $32 8d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $32 8d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $32 8d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $26 12d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $27 12d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $28 13d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $28 14d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $26 14d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $26 14d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $21 16d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $21 16d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $19 18d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $19 18d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $21 19d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $21 19d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $32 19d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $32 20d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $38 22d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $26 24d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $26 25d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $60 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $129.30 · official $129.30 (match) · 301 history records