Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:45:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
B3 0xb3fb…a972 sports 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$74 (+8%) realized +$73 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate59%29W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$126now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$64
7 days+$64
14 days+$64
30 days+$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$8
other 37% +$46
politics 11% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +62.5% +47.0% 100% 100% +24.4%
≤30d 4 +62.5% +47.0% 100% 100% +24.4%
≤90d 49 -0.6% -10.1% 59% 59% -1.9%
all 49 -0.6% -10.1% 59% 59% -1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 59% -1.9%
10% -18.7% 55% -11.3%
15% -26.5% 41% -19.8%
20% -33.7% 27% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$8 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$126
Realized+$73
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses29 / 20
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions5
Markets (closed)49 / 54
History coverage85d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Yes 21¢ 25¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+17%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$8 +38%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$15 +152%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $40 +$13 +32%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 25 $100 +$28 +28%
Madrid Open: Patrick Kypson vs Stefanos Tsitsipas May 13 $6 +$5 +90%
Madrid Open: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Merida Aguilar May 13 $10 +$5 +50%
Madrid Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Alejandro Tabilo May 13 $10 +$7 +73%
Madrid Open: Arthur Fils vs Ignacio Buse May 13 $30 +$5 +17%
Madrid Open: Vilius Gaubas vs Sebastian Baez Apr 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Madrid Open: Rafael Jodar vs Alex de Minaur Apr 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Madrid Open: Cameron Norrie vs Tomas Machac Apr 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Madrid Open: Emilio Nava vs Valentin Vacherot Apr 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Barcelona Open: Tomas Machac vs Andrey Rublev Apr 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Barcelona Open: Cameron Norrie vs Rafael Jodar Apr 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Barcelona Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Andrey Rublev Apr 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-04-22? Apr 23 $10 +$4 +38%
Will Fortaleza EC win on 2026-04-22? Apr 23 $10 +$10 +101%
Madrid Open: Andrey Rublev vs Vit Kopriva Apr 22 $20 −$20 -99%
Madrid Open: Ben Shelton vs Dino Prizmic Apr 22 $10 −$10 -99%
Madrid Open: Jaime Faria vs Hubert Hurkacz Apr 22 $10 +$4 +38%
Madrid Open: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Thiago Agustin Tirante Apr 22 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Apr 20 $40 −$2 -4%
BMW Open: Denis Shapovalov vs Alex Molcan Apr 20 $7 +$8 +109%
BMW Open: Alexander Zverev vs Francisco Cerundolo Apr 20 $20 +$8 +38%
Barcelona Open: Arthur Fils vs Brandon Nakashima Apr 17 $10 +$4 +38%
Barcelona Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Tomas Machac Apr 17 $20 −$1 -3%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-04-16? Apr 17 $20 +$7 +34%
Barcelona Open: Cameron Norrie vs Ethan Quinn Apr 15 $55 +$13 +24%
Barcelona Open: Mariano Navone vs Andrey Rublev Apr 15 $18 +$12 +67%
Barcelona Open: Martin Landaluce vs Lorenzo Musetti Apr 15 $20 +$5 +26%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Valentin Vacherot vs Alex de Minaur Apr 13 $27 +$10 +38%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Alexander Zverev vs Jannik Sinner Apr 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Jiri Lehecka vs Alejandro Tabilo Apr 10 $5 +$4 +70%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Valentin Vacherot Apr 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Joao Fonseca vs Arthur Rinderknech Apr 10 $16 +$5 +32%
SC Corinthians Paulista vs. SC Internacional: Both Teams to Score Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Sebastian Baez vs Stan Wawrinka Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-04-01? Apr 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-04-05? Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Gael Monfils vs Alexander Bublik Apr 07 $8 −$8 -100%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Jakub Mensik vs Fabian Marozsan Apr 07 $6 −$1 -20%
Monza: Gianluca Cadenasso vs Hugo Gaston Apr 07 $5 +$3 +67%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Joao Fonseca vs Gabriel Diallo Apr 07 $15 −$3 -17%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Francisco Cerundolo vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Apr 07 $10 +$9 +90%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Andrey Rublev vs Nuno Borges Apr 06 $15 +$5 +34%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters, Qualification: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Cris Apr 05 $5 +$4 +86%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters, Qualification: Alexander Shevchenko vs Robe Apr 05 $7 +$5 +73%
Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $10 +$1 +13%
Will SC Internacional win on 2026-04-01? Apr 04 $21 +$14 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 55m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $36 56m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 84¢ $40 57m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 1h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 56¢ $128 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $20 27h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 27h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $40 27h
Madrid Open: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Merida Aguilar BUY Daniel Merida Aguilar 66¢ $10 63d
Madrid Open: Rafael Jodar vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alex de Minaur 51¢ $10 63d
Madrid Open: Cameron Norrie vs Tomas Machac BUY Tomas Machac 57¢ $10 63d
Madrid Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Alejandro Tabilo BUY Jiri Lehecka 57¢ $10 63d
Madrid Open: Emilio Nava vs Valentin Vacherot BUY Valentin Vacherot 69¢ $10 63d
Madrid Open: Arthur Fils vs Ignacio Buse BUY Arthur Fils 85¢ $30 63d
Madrid Open: Rafael Jodar vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alex de Minaur 51¢ $5 63d
Madrid Open: Vilius Gaubas vs Sebastian Baez BUY Sebastian Baez 63¢ $15 63d
Madrid Open: Patrick Kypson vs Stefanos Tsitsipas BUY Stefanos Tsitsipas 52¢ $6 63d
Will Fortaleza EC win on 2026-04-22? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 63d
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-04-22? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 63d
Madrid Open: Andrey Rublev vs Vit Kopriva BUY Andrey Rublev 76¢ $20 63d
Madrid Open: Ben Shelton vs Dino Prizmic BUY Ben Shelton 66¢ $10 63d
Madrid Open: Jaime Faria vs Hubert Hurkacz BUY Hubert Hurkacz 72¢ $10 64d
Madrid Open: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Thiago Agustin Tirante BUY Thiago Agustin Tirante 65¢ $10 64d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 36¢ $38 66d
BMW Open: Alexander Zverev vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Alexander Zverev 72¢ $20 69d
BMW Open: Denis Shapovalov vs Alex Molcan BUY Alex Molcan 47¢ $7 69d
Barcelona Open: Cameron Norrie vs Rafael Jodar BUY Cameron Norrie 29¢ $5 69d
Barcelona Open: Tomas Machac vs Andrey Rublev BUY Tomas Machac 40¢ $5 69d
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-04-16? BUY Yes 74¢ $20 69d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $125.90 · official $125.90 (match) · 111 history records