Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:37:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B3 0xb3f9…5298 sports 597 markets active 1h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
Total PnL −$895 (-9%) realized −$935 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate55%326W / 268L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$64est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$14
14 days−$25
30 days−$74
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$937
other 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -9.3% -18.0% 54% 54% -17.6%
≤30d 242 -5.8% -14.8% 60% 59% -13.7%
≤90d 542 -16.9% -24.9% 52% 49% -21.6%
all 594 -0.3% -9.8% 55% 52% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 52% -17.6%
10% -18.4% 49% -25.5%
15% -26.3% 42% -32.7%
20% -33.5% 31% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$11 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$935
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses326 / 268
Est. fees paid−$64
Open positions3
Markets (closed)594 / 597
History coverage154d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 594 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Over 61¢ 56¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-7%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 54¢ 52¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 47¢ 48¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 Over 58¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Milwaukee Brewers 74¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Charles Broom Charles Broom 63¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Ursa 58¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Liberia vs. Sierra Leone: O/U 2.5 Under 68¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Chicago Cubs 68¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Ilkley: Darwin Blanch vs Christopher O'Connell Christopher OConnell 55¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Under 61¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 Over 64¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 59¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Seattle Mariners 65¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Kansas City Royals 53¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Baltimore Orioles 58¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $5 +$5 +90%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $6 +$4 +59%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $6 +$4 +59%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $6 +$4 +70%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $7 −$6 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $6 −$6 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $6 −$6 -99%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 14 $7 −$2 -24%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm Jun 11 $7 +$3 +44%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $7 +$3 +44%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $7 −$7 -99%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $7 −$7 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 Jun 10 $6 −$6 -99%
Lyon: Thomas Faurel vs Florent Bax Jun 10 $6 +$4 +79%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $6 +$4 +76%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $6 +$4 +76%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Charles Broom Jun 09 $6 −$6 -99%
Liberia vs. Sierra Leone: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $7 −$7 -99%
Ilkley: Darwin Blanch vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 09 $6 −$6 -99%
Bratislava: Vitaliy Sachko vs Yosuke Watanuki Jun 08 $7 +$3 +40%
Stuttgart Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 08 $6 +$4 +62%
Libema Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Panna Udvardy Jun 08 $5 +$5 +83%
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 08 $6 +$4 +57%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs ASTRAL (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group S Jun 08 $7 +$3 +44%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Seattle Storm Jun 04 $7 +$3 +40%
Birmingham: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Katie Swan Jun 04 $8 +$2 +31%
Toronto Tempo vs. New York Liberty Jun 04 $8 +$2 +31%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 04 $6 +$4 +73%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 04 $7 +$3 +48%
Tyler: Andres Martin vs Blake Ellis Jun 03 $6 +$4 +66%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 03 $6 −$6 -99%
Tyler: Yuta Shimizu vs Dane Sweeny Jun 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Birmingham: Ugo Blanchet vs Felix Gill Jun 03 $7 −$7 -100%
T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Ireland vs West Indies Jun 03 $7 −$7 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 03 $7 −$7 -100%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Thomas Faurel vs Jay Clarke Jun 03 $7 −$7 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Tyler: Timo Legout vs Andres Andrade Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Heilbronn: Max Schoenhaus vs Alejandro Moro Canas Jun 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs GLYPH (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Clos Jun 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Tyler: Adam Walton vs Tung-Lin Wu Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Makarska: Katarzyna Kawa vs Maya Joint Jun 03 $6 $0 -5%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $7 +$3 +36%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 03 $6 +$4 +61%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 03 $5 +$5 +93%
Tyler: Henry Searle vs Mitchell Krueger Jun 03 $6 +$4 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $6 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 54¢ $5 5h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 47¢ $5 5h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 52¢ $5 5h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 63¢ $6 5h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 65¢ $7 5h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 58¢ $4 5h
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner BUY Ursa 58¢ $6 5h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 63¢ $6 5h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 58¢ $6 6h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 61¢ $6 6h
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 51¢ $5 6h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Milwaukee Brewers 74¢ $7 3d
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm BUY Los Angeles Sparks 69¢ $7 3d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 69¢ $7 3d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Chicago Cubs 68¢ $7 3d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 53¢ $5 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 BUY Over 58¢ $6 4d
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Charles Broom BUY Charles Broom 63¢ $6 5d
Liberia vs. Sierra Leone: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 68¢ $7 5d
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE - Map 2 Winner BUY Global Esports 56¢ $6 5d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 56¢ $6 5d
Lyon: Thomas Faurel vs Florent Bax BUY Thomas Faurel 56¢ $6 5d
Ilkley: Darwin Blanch vs Christopher O'Connell BUY Christopher OConnell 55¢ $6 5d
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Magda Linette 63¢ $6 6d
Libema Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Panna Udvardy BUY Panna Udvardy 54¢ $5 6d
Bratislava: Vitaliy Sachko vs Yosuke Watanuki BUY Vitaliy Sachko 71¢ $7 6d
Stuttgart Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Mattia Bellucci 61¢ $6 6d
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 65¢ $7 6d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs ASTRAL (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group S BUY KOLESIE 69¢ $7 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.64 · official $15.65 (match) · 1269 history records