Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:21:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B3 0xb3f7…0d49 other 61 markets active 1h ago coverage 600d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$24 (-0%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate20%12W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$286per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$10
14 days+$10
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% −$13
politics 11% −$7
other 7% −$24
sports 1% +$19
world 1% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +33.4% +20.7% 25% 25% +8.2%
≤30d 16 +8.3% -2.0% 19% 6% -6.5%
≤90d 46 +1.0% -8.6% 20% 11% -9.7%
all 59 +0.6% -9.0% 20% 8% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 8% -9.7%
10% -17.7% 8% -18.3%
15% -25.6% 5% -26.2%
20% -32.9% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

600d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses12 / 47
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)59 / 61
History coverage600d
Avg bet$286
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $56 $56 −$0 (-0%)
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $12 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $17 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $13 $0 -0%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $7 +$10 +134%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $12 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $11 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $17 $0 -0%
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 29 $13 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $13 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $17 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $12 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $72 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $74 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 11 $71 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 07 $74 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $71 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 03 $76 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $73 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $73 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $149 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $75 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 30 $77 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 24 $72 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 23 $152 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 23 $71 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 23 $79 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $72 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $78 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $78 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 18 $79 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Apr 18 $73 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 18 $75 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 17 $77 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Apr 11 $25 +$1 +3%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $10 +$5 +50%
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings Apr 08 $6 +$7 +104%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Apr 07 $11 +$3 +29%
Lakers vs. Thunder Apr 06 $13 +$4 +31%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in March? Apr 02 $50 $0 +1%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-15? Mar 27 $16 −$16 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of February? Mar 05 $94 $0 +0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Feb 13 $94 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 21 $13,504 −$14 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $18 1h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $12 21h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $12 24h
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $56 2d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $17 5d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $17 6d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $13 6d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $13 6d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 42¢ $7 8d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 11d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 11d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $12 13d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $12 13d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 14d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 14d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $11 16d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 17d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $17 17d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $17 18d
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $13 18d
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $13 18d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $18 21d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $13 23d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $13 24d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 99¢ $30 24d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $17 24d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $17 24d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $12 25d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $12 25d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $72 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.17 · official $74.17 (match) · 252 history records