Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:42:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb3f4…4a91 weather 213 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$32 (-2%) realized −$30 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate42%90W / 122L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$530now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 35% −$33
other 33% −$2
crypto 33% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 114 -6.8% -15.7% 53% 52% -12.7%
≤90d 140 -7.4% -16.2% 44% 43% -14.8%
all 212 -9.8% -18.4% 42% 40% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.4% 40% -12.9%
10% -26.2% 39% -21.2%
15% -33.4% 37% -28.8%
20% -39.9% 34% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$530
Realized−$30
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses90 / 122
Open positions1
Markets (closed)212 / 213
History coverage128d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 212 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? No 88¢ 88¢ $526 $524 −$2 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 97 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on May 26? May 27 $1 +$1 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on May 26? May 27 $3 +$2 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 26? May 27 $4 +$3 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 26? May 27 $4 +$3 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on May 26? May 27 $4 +$3 +62%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on May 26? May 27 $4 +$3 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on May 26? May 27 $4 +$3 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on May 26? May 27 $4 +$3 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on May 26? May 27 $4 +$4 +94%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ma May 27 $5 +$3 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 26? May 27 $5 +$4 +70%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on May 26? May 27 $6 +$4 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 26? May 27 $5 +$6 +116%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 26? May 27 $5 +$7 +142%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on May 26? May 27 $8 +$4 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on May 26? May 27 $6 +$7 +132%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on May 26? May 27 $6 +$9 +143%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ma May 26 $4 +$3 +61%
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on May 26? May 26 $4 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on May 27? May 26 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 27? May 26 $4 +$3 +77%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on May 26? May 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on May 25? May 26 $7 +$3 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on May 26? May 26 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 27? May 26 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on May 26? May 26 $6 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on May 26? May 26 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on May 25? May 26 $5 +$4 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on May 25? May 25 $4 +$5 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on May 25? May 25 $5 +$3 +68%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 25? May 25 $5 +$3 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on May 25? May 25 $5 +$3 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on May 26? May 25 $6 −$6 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on May 25? May 25 $4 +$2 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 25? May 25 $1 +$1 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on May 25? May 25 $3 +$5 +149%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on May 26? May 25 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on May 26? May 25 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 25? May 25 $3 +$2 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 26? May 25 $6 −$6 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on May 25? May 25 $4 +$3 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on May 26? May 25 $6 −$6 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May May 25 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on May 25? May 25 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on May 25? May 25 $8 −$8 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 25? May 25 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on May 25? May 25 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on May 25? May 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 26? May 25 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 26? May 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? BUY No 88¢ $529 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on May 26? BUY No 59¢ $3 20d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on May 26? BUY No 50¢ $4 20d
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on May 26? BUY No 55¢ $4 20d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on May 27? BUY No 56¢ $4 20d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 27? BUY No 56¢ $4 20d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on May 26? BUY No 42¢ $6 20d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on May 26? BUY No 53¢ $5 20d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 26? BUY No 57¢ $4 20d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on May 26? BUY No 45¢ $4 20d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 27? BUY No 54¢ $3 20d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on May 26? BUY No 40¢ $6 20d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on May 26? BUY No 62¢ $4 20d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on May 26? BUY No 59¢ $6 20d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 26? BUY No 45¢ $5 20d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on May 26? BUY No 55¢ $4 20d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on May 26? BUY No 58¢ $4 20d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on May 26? BUY No 58¢ $6 20d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on May 26? BUY No 61¢ $4 20d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 26? BUY No 61¢ $4 20d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 26? BUY No 57¢ $5 20d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 26? BUY No 40¢ $5 20d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on May 26? BUY No 59¢ $6 21d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on May 26? BUY No 62¢ $4 21d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on May 26? BUY No 55¢ $4 21d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ma BUY No 59¢ $5 21d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 26? BUY No 59¢ $6 21d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on May 26? BUY No 55¢ $6 21d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on May 26? BUY No 61¢ $1 21d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May BUY No 64¢ $3 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $530.46 · official $530.46 (match) · 507 history records