Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:38:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
B3 0xb3f3…2d9d sports 58 markets active 2h ago coverage 90d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
Total PnL +$77 (+13%) realized +$77 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip
Net edge+22%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate50%29W / 29L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days+$71
14 days+$66
30 days+$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$93
other 34% −$6
crypto 11% −$25
world 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +48.9% +34.7% 55% 50% +2.5%
≤30d 57 +37.0% +24.0% 51% 46% +0.6%
≤90d 57 +37.0% +24.0% 51% 46% +0.6%
all 58 +34.7% +21.8% 50% 45% -0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +21.8% 45% -0.2%
10% +10.2% 40% -9.7%
15% -0.5% 40% -18.5%
20% -10.2% 34% -26.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +35% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +59% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$10 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$77
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses29 / 29
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)58 / 58
History coverage90d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 58 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $15 +$27 +174%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $10 +$13 +123%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $30 +$21 +70%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $13 −$13 -98%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $24 −$23 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 26 $2 $0 +14%
Norway vs. France: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $20 −$17 -81%
Norway vs. France: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $20 +$35 +171%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $41 −$30 -74%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $20 +$65 +319%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $20 −$19 -92%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $21 −$19 -93%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $41 −$39 -96%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $19 −$19 -98%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $10 +$28 +272%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $3 +$5 +145%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $10 +$24 +237%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 −$7 -71%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $21 −$14 -68%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$2 +16%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $6 +$48 +776%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $1 +$3 +251%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $5 +$9 +185%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 +$2 +19%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$7 -67%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$15 +143%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 $0 +4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $15 +$6 +41%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $7 +$8 +114%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 +$5 +282%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +95%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $11 −$1 -5%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 −$1 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4 −$3 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$5 +154%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $3 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -95%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 98¢ $42 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $23 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $15 3h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 44¢ $10 3h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 35¢ $15 3h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 31¢ $3 5h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 38¢ $10 6h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 32¢ $3 6h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 39¢ $20 6h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 6h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $2 9h
Norway vs. France: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 6¢ $4 9h
Norway vs. France: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $55 9h
Norway vs. France: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 30¢ $20 10h
Norway vs. France: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 36¢ $20 10h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 7¢ $10 27h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 10¢ $0 27h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 20¢ $20 27h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 31¢ $20 27h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 97¢ $86 32h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 3¢ $2 32h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 23¢ $20 34h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 37¢ $20 34h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 1¢ $1 2d
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 1¢ $2 2d
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 21¢ $4 2d
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 28¢ $15 2d
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 18¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 117 history records