trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 3 | +10.3% | -0.2% | 100% | 33% | -0.7% |
| ≤90d | 13 | -3.5% | -12.7% | 77% | 8% | -6.3% |
| all | 18 | -9.4% | -18.1% | 67% | 11% | -6.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -18.1% | 11% | -6.4% |
| 10% | -25.9% | 6% | -15.4% |
| 15% | -33.1% | 6% | -23.6% |
| 20% | -39.6% | 6% | -31.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 94¢ | 95¢ | $2,531 | $2,536 | +$5 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | Jun 08 | $2,415 | +$153 | +6% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Jun 01 | $2,077 | +$338 | +16% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? | May 29 | $3,859 | +$319 | +8% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? | May 20 | $2,104 | −$66 | -3% |
| Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? | May 19 | $2,231 | −$407 | -18% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | May 15 | $4,551 | −$321 | -7% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? | May 12 | $2,115 | +$77 | +4% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? | May 09 | $2,006 | +$106 | +5% |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | May 01 | $2,452 | +$157 | +6% |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 24th? | Apr 25 | $2,433 | +$20 | +1% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Apr 06 | $2,800 | +$168 | +6% |
| Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of March 2026? | Apr 01 | $14 | +$1 | +7% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | Mar 29 | $2,063 | +$81 | +4% |
| Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-03-21? | Mar 21 | $29 | −$2 | -6% |
| Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw? | Mar 21 | $8 | +$4 | +52% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET | Mar 21 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-03-21? | Mar 21 | $28 | −$20 | -70% |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in January? | Mar 16 | $1 | $0 | +0% |