Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:10:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb3f2…cf88 sports 17 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$156 (-32%) realized −$172 · open +$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%4W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$34
7 days+$25
14 days−$105
30 days−$105
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$96
other 44% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-45.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -8.6% -17.3% 40% 40% +8.6%
≤30d 12 -39.7% -45.4% 33% 33% -34.6%
≤90d 12 -39.7% -45.4% 33% 33% -34.6%
all 12 -39.7% -45.4% 33% 33% -34.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.4% 33% -34.6%
10% -50.6% 33% -40.9%
15% -55.4% 25% -46.6%
20% -59.8% 17% -51.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -56% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$28 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$172
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses4 / 8
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)12 / 17
History coverage10d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals Yes 0¢ 33¢ $0 $16 +$16 (+0%)
Will T1 win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Yes 26¢ 29¢ $5 $5 +$1 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 22 $51 +$54 +106%
Enner Valencia: 1+ goals Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Folarin Balogun: 1+ assists Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals Jun 19 $76 −$26 -34%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 17 $22 +$33 +152%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $82 −$81 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $50 −$49 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $12 −$11 -98%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 13 $74 +$29 +40%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playo Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$1 +27%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $9 −$9 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $20 17m
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $104 18m
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 48¢ $51 1h
Enner Valencia: 1+ goals BUY Yes 57¢ $20 43h
Folarin Balogun: 1+ assists BUY Yes 18¢ $5 2d
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $5 2d
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $20 2d
Folarin Balogun: 1+ assists BUY Yes 18¢ $10 2d
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals SELL Yes 39¢ $48 2d
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $51 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 47¢ $20 5d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will BUY 9¢ $5 5d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 22¢ $5 5d
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs SELL Galions 100¢ $35 7d
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs SELL Galions 55¢ $19 7d
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Galions 30¢ $22 7d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 54¢ $82 8d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 34¢ $10 8d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 66¢ $40 8d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 42¢ $12 8d
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playo BUY Karmine Corp Blue 48¢ $10 9d
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs SELL Galions 100¢ $100 9d
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Galions 71¢ $74 9d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 3¢ $5 9d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 25¢ $5 9d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner SELL Gen.G 100¢ $6 9d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 78¢ $5 9d
Will T1 win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.16 · official $21.16 (match) · 31 history records