Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:19:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
B3 0xb3f2…1cc8 other 107 markets active 1h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$17 (+1%) realized +$18 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%47W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$177now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$51
7 days+$260
14 days+$260
30 days+$260
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$46
sports 31% +$72
world 2% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 +72.4% +56.0% 78% 78% +26.3%
≤30d 54 +72.4% +56.0% 78% 78% +26.3%
≤90d 91 +13.1% +2.3% 52% 48% -8.7%
all 91 +13.1% +2.3% 52% 48% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.3% 48% -8.7%
10% -7.5% 44% -17.5%
15% -16.4% 36% -25.4%
20% -24.6% 31% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -47% → late +72% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$9 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$177
Realized+$18
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses47 / 44
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions16
Markets (closed)91 / 107
History coverage51d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 82¢ 80¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Over 53¢ 55¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+3%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Under 74¢ 74¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Over 68¢ 67¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Under 68¢ 69¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 56¢ 56¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 44¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Over 38¢ 38¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Yes 42¢ 41¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 +$6 +124%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 +$15 +152%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 +$11 +344%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 +$8 +79%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $15 +$5 +31%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $15 +$8 +55%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$12 +226%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $15 +$4 +29%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $15 +$12 +79%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 +$5 +52%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 +$9 +57%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 +$3 +31%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $15 +$7 +46%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$5 +105%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 +$6 +124%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 +$6 +114%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 +$8 +152%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $15 +$4 +26%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $15 +$4 +26%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $15 +$6 +42%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Finland be the best Nordic country at Eurovision 2026? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +43%
Will Moldova be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 11 $3 +$5 +202%
Will Moldova advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? Jun 11 $9 +$1 +14%
Will Romania be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 11 $2 +$9 +540%
Will Bulgaria be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 11 $1 +$10 +958%
Will Croatia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? Jun 11 $15 +$3 +20%
Will Denmark be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 11 $18 +$9 +47%
Will Romania advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? Jun 11 $25 +$5 +19%
Will Romania be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 11 $11 +$19 +169%
Will France be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 11 $16 +$15 +91%
Will Greece be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 11 $11 +$22 +193%
Will Bulgaria be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 11 $13 +$22 +162%
Will Serbia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? Jun 11 $37 +$8 +22%
Will Romania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 11 $25 +$13 +51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $5 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $10 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $15 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $10 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $5 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $10 8h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $20 8h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $20 8h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $5 8h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $15 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $15 8h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $15 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $15 8h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $5 24h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $10 24h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 24h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 24h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $10 24h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $5 24h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $15 24h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $15 24h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 64¢ $15 24h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 81¢ $15 24h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $10 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $5 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $15 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $177.21 · official $177.21 (match) · 192 history records