Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:19:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb3ef…09d2 world 31 markets active 0h ago coverage 477d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+1%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate53%16W / 14L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% +$5
other 25% −$2
finance 6% $0
politics 3% $0
sports 2% $0
weather 2% $0
tech 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +3.3% -6.5% 67% 33% -8.2%
≤30d 12 -6.2% -15.2% 50% 17% -7.9%
≤90d 12 -6.2% -15.2% 50% 17% -7.9%
all 30 -6.3% -15.2% 53% 10% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 10% -8.8%
10% -23.3% 0% -17.5%
15% -30.7% 0% -25.5%
20% -37.5% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.99 per $1 lost it wins $1.99
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

477d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses16 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage477d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 91¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $14 +$2 +11%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $42 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $29 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $59 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $45 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $23 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $39 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 30 $1 $0 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 29 $35 +$5 +15%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $34 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $37 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 28 $14 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 10 $2 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jul 01 $7 $0 +2%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jun 28 $2 $0 +18%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31? Jun 01 $13 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? May 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? May 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30? May 17 $14 $0 +2%
Will the Giants draft Shedeur Sanders? Apr 06 $12 $0 -4%
Will Lyon win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in 2025? Apr 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Isak be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Apr 03 $15 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 25 $1 $0 -11%
Will 'Snow White' gross between 44-49m on opening weekend? Mar 25 $14 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 again by March 31? Mar 23 $1 $0 -22%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 46°F or below on March 24? Mar 23 $14 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 21-28? Mar 22 $14 $0 +1%
Will Billy Donovan make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall Mar 21 $16 −$1 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $16 10m
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $14 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $42 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $42 4h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $28 8h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $29 10h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $42 18h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $43 19h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $43 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $42 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $17 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $17 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $42 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $42 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $23 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $23 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 18d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 19d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.92 · official $0.92 (match) · 95 history records