Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:16:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb3ed…4024 world 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 476d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$10 (+1%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate45%14W / 17L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 70% −$4
other 11% −$1
crypto 8% +$1
politics 5% $0
sports 5% +$1
weather 1% +$11
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +2.0% -7.7% 67% 0% -7.8%
≤30d 16 -1.1% -10.5% 31% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 17 -6.9% -15.8% 29% 0% -10.1%
all 31 -1.6% -11.0% 45% 3% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 3% -8.7%
10% -19.5% 3% -17.4%
15% -27.3% 3% -25.4%
20% -34.4% 3% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.17 per $1 lost it wins $2.17
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

476d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses14 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage476d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 87¢ 86¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $38 +$2 +4%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $71 +$1 +2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $35 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $112 −$3 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $37 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 06 $37 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $39 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $41 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $32 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 05 $40 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $114 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 31 $40 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $37 −$3 -8%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $43 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 27 $40 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $2 $0 -12%
Will Flamengo win the FIFA Club World Cup? Mar 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 National League Championshi Jun 23 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2025 World Series? Jun 23 $28 +$1 +4%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2600 in April? Apr 05 $28 $0 +0%
Will the US add less than 50k jobs in March? Apr 04 $27 $0 +1%
Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense in Trump's first 100 Apr 03 $25 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 03 $3 $0 +0%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin March 25-31? Apr 02 $28 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? Apr 02 $1 $0 -25%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by March 31? Mar 30 $26 $0 +2%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 25 $26 $0 +0%
Wofford vs. Tennessee Mar 21 $26 +$1 +5%
Will Trump post 220 or more times March 14-21? Mar 20 $26 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on February Mar 20 $15 +$11 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $40 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 6h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 6h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 11h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 11h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 11h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 80¢ $26 16h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 80¢ $10 16h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 82¢ $36 19h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 72¢ $7 26h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 72¢ $30 28h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $7 31h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $27 31h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $24 34h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $11 34h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $35 37h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $30 40h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $4 40h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $34 43h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 73¢ $38 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $41 11d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $37 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $6 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $31 12d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 46¢ $37 12d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 46¢ $24 12d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 46¢ $14 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $19 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $18 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $37 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.56 · official $39.56 (match) · 104 history records