Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:02:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B3 0xb3e3…0a4e crypto 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 513d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$29 (-1%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate79%49W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$19
other 3% $0
sports 1% −$10
world 0% $0
politics 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 14 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 19 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 62 -2.8% -12.1% 79% 2% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 2% -10.1%
10% -20.5% 0% -18.7%
15% -28.2% 0% -26.6%
20% -35.2% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

513d coverage
Net worth$95
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses49 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)62 / 63
History coverage513d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 27? No 100¢ 100¢ $95 $95 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $95 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $72,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $95 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $95 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $74,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $95 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $95 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $95 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $95 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $95 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $94 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $94 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $82,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $94 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $94 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $94 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 28? May 28 $94 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 25? May 27 $94 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on April 27? Apr 27 $94 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 6? Apr 07 $94 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 31? Apr 01 $94 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 27? Mar 30 $94 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 26? Mar 26 $93 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $82,000 on March 23? Mar 23 $93 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 19? Mar 19 $93 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 13? Mar 17 $93 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 11? Mar 11 $93 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 9? Mar 09 $93 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 7? Mar 08 $93 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 4? Mar 06 $93 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 2? Mar 02 $111 −$19 -17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 27? Feb 27 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 26? Feb 25 $114 −$3 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 24? Feb 24 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 20? Feb 23 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 19? Feb 19 $114 $0 +0%
Will Meta (META) close above $650 on February 17? Feb 18 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 17? Feb 17 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 16? Feb 16 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 15? Feb 15 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 14? Feb 14 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 12? Feb 12 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 11? Feb 11 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 10? Feb 10 $113 $0 +0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Aug 03 $1 $0 -0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? Jul 01 $2 $0 -20%
Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025? Jul 01 $2 −$1 -29%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran in 2025? Jul 01 $5 +$1 +14%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.09 in April? May 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.35 in April? May 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tanya Plibersek be the next Prime Minister of Australia after the Apr 24 $1 $0 -0%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 24 $2 $0 +1%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 24 $4 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $95 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $95 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $72,000 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $95 46h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $95 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $74,000 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $95 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $95 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $95 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $95 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $95 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $94 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $94 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $82,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $94 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $94 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $94 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $94 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $94 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on April 27? BUY No 100¢ $94 61d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 6? BUY No 100¢ $94 82d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 31? BUY No 100¢ $94 88d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 27? BUY No 100¢ $94 91d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 26? BUY No 100¢ $93 92d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $82,000 on March 23? BUY No 100¢ $93 96d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 19? BUY No 100¢ $93 100d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 13? BUY No 100¢ $93 106d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 11? BUY No 100¢ $93 107d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 9? BUY No 100¢ $93 109d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 7? BUY No 100¢ $93 111d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 4? BUY No 100¢ $93 115d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 2? SELL No 83¢ $85 116d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 2? SELL No 83¢ $8 116d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95.25 · official $95.25 (match) · 128 history records