Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:16:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B3 0xb3e3…c04b crypto 525 markets active 3h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$458 (+15%) realized +$458 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%292W / 233L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day12.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$58
7 days+$230
14 days+$302
30 days+$415
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$385
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 115 -0.8% -10.3% 56% 56% +10.2%
≤30d 366 +3.4% -6.5% 57% 57% +6.6%
≤90d 525 +1.9% -7.8% 56% 56% +1.9%
all 525 +1.9% -7.8% 56% 56% +1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 56% +1.9%
10% -16.6% 55% -7.9%
15% -24.7% 54% -16.8%
20% -32.1% 49% -25.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$458
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses292 / 233
Open positions0
Markets (closed)525 / 525
History coverage43d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day12.8
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 525 Trades
no open positions (224 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$5 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$9 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 24 $6 +$6 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 24 $94 +$91 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 24 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 24 $36 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1PM ET Jun 24 $3 +$2 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$9 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2PM ET Jun 23 $6 +$4 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3PM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 23 $2 +$1 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 23 $6 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 22 $2 +$1 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 22 $50 +$35 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 22 $18 −$17 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 22 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 22 $6 +$6 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 22 $6 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4PM ET Jun 21 $6 +$6 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 21 $2 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 21 $6 +$5 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET Jun 21 $6 +$4 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 21 $2 +$2 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 21 $2 +$2 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 21 $6 +$3 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 21 $6 +$5 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 21 $2 +$2 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11AM ET Jun 21 $6 +$3 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 21 $2 +$2 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 21 $2 +$2 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 21 $40 +$53 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 21 $18 −$17 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 21 $62 +$61 +98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 21 $49 −$47 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 21 $18 −$17 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 21 $2 +$2 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5AM ET Jun 21 $6 +$5 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 21 $6 +$5 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 21 $2 +$2 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 21 $2 +$1 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $94 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $36 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $12 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $50 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $18 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $6 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 847 history records