Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:25:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb3e2…68c2 world 86 markets active 2h ago coverage 525d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate29%25W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% +$3
politics 23% −$2
other 21% −$11
sports 10% $0
economics 4% $0
crypto 2% $0
finance 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.0% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 31 +2.3% -7.5% 32% 6% -9.3%
≤90d 76 -0.9% -10.4% 29% 4% -9.4%
all 85 -4.7% -13.8% 29% 4% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 4% -9.8%
10% -22.1% 1% -18.4%
15% -29.6% 1% -26.3%
20% -36.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

525d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses25 / 60
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)85 / 86
History coverage525d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 97¢ 97¢ $51 $52 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $11 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $16 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 21 $32 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 20 $18 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $88 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $42 $0 -1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $16 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $15 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $41 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $58 $0 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $95 −$2 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $2 +$1 +47%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $9 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $28 +$5 +20%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $43 −$1 -2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 09 $2 $0 +5%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 09 $1 $0 -5%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $86 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $31 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $47 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $45 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 04 $29 −$1 -2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 31 $16 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 30 $34 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $49 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 27 $7 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $40 +$3 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $51 −$4 -8%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $25 +$4 +16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 20 $26 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $12 $0 -4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 15 $44 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $3 $0 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 14 $4 $0 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 14 $1 $0 -7%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 27 $37 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $45 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $10 $0 +1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $54 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $85 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 21 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $4 $0 -2%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $3 $0 +4%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $41 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $51 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $8 5h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 5h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 10h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $11 15h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $4 15h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $16 18h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $32 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $32 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $9 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $12 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 43¢ $16 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 43¢ $24 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 43¢ $40 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $42 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $8 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $34 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 32¢ $16 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $16 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $12 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 8d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.54 · official $51.54 (match) · 336 history records