Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:16:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb3df…463d crypto 43 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$8 (+0%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate93%40W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day45.0pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$18
other 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -3.8% -13.0% 93% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 43 -3.8% -13.0% 93% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 43 -3.8% -13.0% 93% 0% -9.3%
all 43 -3.8% -13.0% 93% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.0% 0% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -21.3% 0% -18.0%
15% -28.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -35.9% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$19 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses40 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage1d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day45.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 29 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 29 $100 +$3 +3%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 29 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 29 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 29 $100 +$3 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 29 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 29 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 29 $100 +$3 +3%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 29 $50 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 29 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 29 $100 +$3 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 29 $97 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 29 $100 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 29 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 29 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 29 $100 +$3 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 29 $100 +$3 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 29 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 29 $100 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 29 $100 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 29 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 29 $100 +$3 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 29 $50 −$42 -84%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 29 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 29 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 29 $100 +$3 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 29 $50 +$1 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 29 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 29 $100 +$3 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 29 $50 +$1 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 29 $100 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 29 $50 +$1 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 29 $100 +$2 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 29 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 29 $100 +$3 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$7 -65%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 29 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 29 $10 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 29 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 29 $10 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 29 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 29 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 6m
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 31m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 41m
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 41m
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $97 51m
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 56m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Up 17¢ $8 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 86 history records