Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:42:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb3d7…7504 world 770 markets active 0h ago coverage 321d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 321d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$7,562 (-3%) realized −$8,734 · open +$1,172
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate77%557W / 163L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$296per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$10,876now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 321d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 35% +$2,020
world 26% +$3,738
other 14% +$274
finance 10% −$691
politics 7% −$510
sports 5% −$256
tech 4% −$305
economics 0% −$343
culture 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -9.0% -17.6% 71% 4% -13.4%
≤30d 159 -9.0% -17.7% 74% 18% -8.1%
≤90d 350 -2.7% -12.0% 81% 21% -8.4%
all 720 -1.9% -11.3% 77% 24% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 24% -8.4%
10% -19.8% 11% -17.1%
15% -27.5% 6% -25.1%
20% -34.6% 4% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$131 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

321d coverage
Net worth$10,876
Realized−$8,734
Unrealized+$1,172
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses557 / 163
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions50
Markets (closed)720 / 770
History coverage321d ⚠
Avg bet$296
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 50 History 720 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? No 35¢ 71¢ $352 $710 +$358 (+102%)
Kash Patel out by December 31? No 38¢ 46¢ $587 $709 +$122 (+21%)
Kash Patel out by June 30? No 68¢ 93¢ $494 $674 +$179 (+36%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 73¢ 90¢ $528 $645 +$116 (+22%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 44¢ 88¢ $256 $512 +$256 (+100%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $256 in June? No 89¢ 97¢ $464 $507 +$43 (+9%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No 80¢ 91¢ $410 $463 +$53 (+13%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 89¢ 98¢ $363 $403 +$40 (+11%)
Nothing Ever Happens: June Nothing 92¢ 92¢ $400 $399 −$1 (-0%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 95¢ $394 $393 −$1 (-0%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No 75¢ 78¢ $354 $371 +$17 (+5%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No 61¢ 70¢ $300 $346 +$46 (+15%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 82¢ 84¢ $322 $332 +$10 (+3%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? No 97¢ 99¢ $323 $328 +$5 (+2%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? No 88¢ 92¢ $300 $311 +$11 (+4%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 92¢ 89¢ $300 $291 −$9 (-3%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? No 96¢ 97¢ $250 $251 +$1 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 83¢ 97¢ $181 $213 +$32 (+18%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 96¢ 98¢ $200 $205 +$5 (+3%)
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? No 68¢ 86¢ $133 $168 +$35 (+26%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? No 62¢ 80¢ $126 $165 +$39 (+31%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 93¢ 99¢ $152 $162 +$10 (+6%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $875B by June 30? No 49¢ 74¢ $104 $156 +$52 (+50%)
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 85¢ 86¢ $150 $153 +$3 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $47 +$13 +29%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 13, 2026? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 15 $292 −$45 -15%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $530 +$10 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $200 −$200 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 15 $50 +$5 +10%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 15 $200 −$13 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $236 −$36 -15%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 14 $25 −$14 -55%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Jun 14 $1,524 +$82 +5%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $200 +$5 +2%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? Jun 14 $358 +$70 +20%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? Jun 14 $100 +$3 +3%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 14 $200 +$1 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 13, 2026? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 13 $200 −$2 -1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $200 +$2 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $110 +$1 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $200 +$1 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $347 +$20 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $133 +$1 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $100 +$1 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $420 +$5 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $501 +$31 +6%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $200 +$4 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? Jun 12 $131 −$25 -19%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $45 +$1 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 12 $302 −$211 -70%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $451 −$2 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $200 $0 +0%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 11 $100 −$100 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $201 −$201 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $100 +$1 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 9? Jun 09 $130 −$1 -1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 9? Jun 09 $42 +$2 +4%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 9? Jun 09 $100 −$5 -5%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $200 +$11 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $184 +$16 +9%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $751 +$21 +3%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $5 $0 +9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $300 +$9 +3%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 June 1-7? Jun 08 $297 +$3 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 June 1-7? Jun 08 $200 +$2 +1%
Will Solana dip to $50 June 1-7? Jun 08 $294 +$6 +2%
Will Solana dip to $40 June 1-7? Jun 08 $314 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $362 +$25 +7%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 1-7? Jun 08 $210 +$3 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $100 +$10 +10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $400 +$2 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? SELL No 53¢ $3 0m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? SELL No 53¢ $3 0m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? SELL No 53¢ $2 40m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? SELL No 53¢ $3 41m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? SELL No 53¢ $5 41m
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $64 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 49¢ $5 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Alex Pereira 51¢ $0 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Alex Pereira 51¢ $6 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 49¢ $10 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $6 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? BUY No 4¢ $5 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $86 1h
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $168 in June? BUY No 70¢ $78 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Ciryl Gane 49¢ $23 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY No 53¢ $128 4h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $100 4h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $200 4h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY No 13¢ $36 4h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? SELL No 46¢ $77 4h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL No 72¢ $187 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 71¢ $200 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 51¢ $13 6h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? SELL No 28¢ $11 6h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $130 7h
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $100 7h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? SELL No 96¢ $125 7h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? SELL No 59¢ $3 7h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? SELL No 19¢ $27 7h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $50 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,875.58 · official $10,875.59 (match) · 3500 history records