Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:54:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb3d1…7665 crypto 68 markets active 2h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$65 (+6%) realized +$86 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate51%34W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$14
14 days−$14
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% +$13
other 10% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -64.0% -67.4% 33% 0% -60.5%
≤30d 67 -6.2% -15.2% 51% 40% -9.7%
≤90d 67 -6.2% -15.2% 51% 40% -9.7%
all 67 -6.2% -15.2% 51% 40% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 40% -9.7%
10% -23.3% 37% -18.4%
15% -30.7% 31% -26.3%
20% -37.5% 25% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +45% → late -56% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$16 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$86
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses34 / 33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)67 / 68
History coverage29d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 46¢ 14¢ $30 $9 −$21 (-71%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 07 $3 +$3 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 07 $2 +$5 +225%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 07 $3 −$3 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 07 $3 +$2 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 06 $4 +$2 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 06 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 01 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 01 $21 −$21 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 01 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 01 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 01 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 01 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 01 $21 −$21 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 31, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 01 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 01 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 01 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 01 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 01 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 01 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 01 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 01 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 01 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 31 $19 +$8 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 31 $21 +$17 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 31 $21 +$38 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 31 $10 +$8 +74%
BNB Up or Down - May 31, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 31 $20 +$4 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 31 $32 +$111 +347%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 31 $21 +$59 +276%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 31 $21 +$16 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 31 $32 −$18 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 31 $31 +$30 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 31 $32 +$75 +237%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 31 $21 +$14 +66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 46¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $2 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $3 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 22d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $10 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $21 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $22 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $19 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $21 28d
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $21 28d
BNB Up or Down - May 31, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $21 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $21 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $21 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $21 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.80 · official $8.80 (match) · 127 history records