Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:37:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb3d0…cbbb other 257 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$74 (-0%) realized −$74 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%12W / 245L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$224per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$17
14 days−$26
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$42
sports 22% −$20
politics 7% −$6
crypto 6% −$4
economics 6% −$6
culture 5% −$6
world 2% +$1
tech 2% −$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 63 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 178 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 257 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$74
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses12 / 245
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)257 / 257
History coverage134d
Avg bet$224
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 257 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $445 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $571 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $434 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $335 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $224 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $553 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $65 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $312 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $224 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $519 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $145 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $455 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $657 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $243 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $603 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $288 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $168 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $615 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 13 $231 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $358 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $378 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $68 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $213 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $344 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $352 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $409 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $386 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $416 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $469 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $329 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $436 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $663 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $548 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $161 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $315 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $250 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $596 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $236 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $386 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 04 $426 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $427 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $173 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $260 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $449 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $151 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $245 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $358 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $634 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $334 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $317 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $64 59m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $65 2h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $65 3h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $65 4h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $65 7h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $65 8h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $65 13h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $65 15h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $65 16h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $65 18h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $65 22h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $65 24h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $65 25h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $65 26h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $65 28h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $65 30h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $65 34h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $66 35h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $66 38h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $66 40h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $66 40h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $66 42h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $66 47h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $66 2d
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $66 2d
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $66 2d
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $66 2d
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $66 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $66 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $66 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1363 history records