Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:08:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B3 0xb3cf…4723 other 85 markets active 0h ago coverage 192d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$2,342 (+3%) realized +$2,389 · open −$47
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate48%39W / 42L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$1,030per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$3,460now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$579
14 days−$243
30 days−$130
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$1,136
politics 20% $0
tech 17% +$411
world 13% +$33
crypto 1% +$3
sports 0% −$168
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)+5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +17.2% +6.0% 83% 33% -7.6%
≤30d 32 -16.5% -24.5% 38% 16% -9.7%
≤90d 72 +19.0% +7.7% 47% 29% -7.6%
all 81 +16.8% +5.7% 48% 28% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.7% 28% -7.9%
10% -4.4% 21% -16.8%
15% -13.6% 14% -24.8%
20% -22.1% 11% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$1,368) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +49% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$153 vs −$116 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

192d coverage
Net worth$3,460
Realized+$2,389
Unrealized−$47
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses39 / 42
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)81 / 85
History coverage192d
Avg bet$1,030
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Yes 64¢ 66¢ $2,095 $2,175 +$80 (+4%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 40¢ 36¢ $1,322 $1,194 −$128 (-10%)
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 50¢ 49¢ $71 $69 −$2 (-3%)
Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 52¢ 62¢ $18 $22 +$4 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $17,642 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 18 $10 +$8 +80%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $801 +$15 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $3,414 +$237 +7%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $3,477 +$57 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $2,066 +$263 +13%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 10 $4,046 −$316 -8%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 10 $4,090 $0 +0%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 10 $302 −$10 -3%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 10 $2,702 +$67 +2%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -97%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $887 +$13 +1%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $0 $0 +0%
Tea FDV above $40M one day after launch Jun 09 $267 −$267 -100%
Will Punjab Kings win the 2026 Indian Premier League? Jun 09 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Rajasthan Royals win the 2026 Indian Premier League? Jun 09 $135 −$135 -100%
Will Gujarat Titans win the 2026 Indian Premier League? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Chennai Super Kings win the 2026 Indian Premier League? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
MegaETH FDV above $2B one day after launch? Jun 09 $324 −$254 -78%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 07 $1,014 +$122 +12%
Tea FDV above $80M one day after launch Jun 04 $406 +$102 +25%
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 26 $2,972 −$130 -4%
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch? May 26 $2,272 +$191 +8%
Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch? May 26 $3,495 −$191 -6%
Solstice FDV above $300M one day after launch? May 26 $1,929 +$121 +6%
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 25 $1,547 −$21 -1%
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch? May 24 $27 −$2 -7%
Solstice FDV above $400M one day after launch? May 23 $26 −$6 -24%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? May 22 $835 −$17 -2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? May 22 $99 −$2 -2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? May 22 $79 −$4 -4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? May 21 $142 +$71 +50%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 12 $337 +$10 +3%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 12 $345 −$6 -2%
MegaETH FDV above $1.6B one day after launch? May 01 $1,368 +$157 +12%
MegaETH FDV above $1.8B one day after launch? May 01 $12 +$1 +7%
MegaETH FDV above $1.4B one day after launch? May 01 $508 +$382 +75%
Over $10M committed to the Printr public sale? May 01 $189 −$185 -98%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? May 01 $3,030 +$524 +17%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? May 01 $3,796 +$580 +15%
Pharos FDV above $800M one day after launch? May 01 $76 −$76 -100%
Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $43 +$170 +393%
Pharos FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 30 $473 +$11 +2%
Over $8M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $10 +$188 +1792%
MegaETH FDV above $800M one day after launch? Apr 20 $240 +$93 +39%
MegaETH FDV above $700M one day after launch? Apr 18 $4 +$3 +71%
MegaETH FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 18 $71 +$86 +121%
USD.AI FDV above $200M one day after launch? Apr 16 $1,436 +$335 +23%
USD.AI FDV above $400M one day after launch? Apr 16 $93 +$94 +101%
USD.AI FDV above $150M one day after launch? Apr 16 $165 −$49 -30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 34¢ $62 13m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 34¢ $1 13m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 34¢ $5 13m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? BUY Yes 69¢ $138 13m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 34¢ $16 15m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 34¢ $2 15m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 34¢ $1 15m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 34¢ $29 16m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 34¢ $57 16m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 34¢ $4 17m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? BUY Yes 68¢ $33 17m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 34¢ $1 17m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 34¢ $17 18m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 34¢ $21 19m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 34¢ $39 19m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? BUY Yes 69¢ $345 20m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 44¢ $27 32m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? SELL Yes 62¢ $38 32m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 39¢ $3 50m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? BUY Yes 65¢ $2 51m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? BUY Yes 65¢ $2 51m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? BUY Yes 65¢ $0 51m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 38¢ $114 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? BUY Yes 66¢ $86 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 38¢ $380 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? BUY Yes 66¢ $656 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? BUY Yes 65¢ $13 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? BUY Yes 63¢ $0 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $4 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,459.86 · official $3,462.68 (match) · 935 history records