Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:27:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B3 0xb3cc…472c crypto 334 markets active 0h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$24 (+2%) realized +$25 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%157W / 176L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$42
7 days+$17
14 days+$46
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 174 +5.3% -4.7% 44% 44% -5.9%
≤30d 317 +8.0% -2.3% 47% 47% -7.2%
≤90d 333 +6.5% -3.7% 47% 47% -7.7%
all 333 +6.5% -3.7% 47% 47% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.7% 47% -7.7%
10% -12.9% 47% -16.5%
15% -21.3% 40% -24.6%
20% -29.0% 31% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$25
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses157 / 176
Open positions1
Markets (closed)333 / 334
History coverage40d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 333 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Down 27¢ 12¢ $3 $1 −$1 (-54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 170 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$6 +231%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$6 +235%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$7 +270%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$7 +270%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$6 +235%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$7 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$6 +239%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$6 +235%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$7 +262%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$6 +231%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$6 +239%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$6 +231%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$7 +243%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$7 +270%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$3 +250%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$3 +231%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$3 +231%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$3 +235%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$3 +239%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $9 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $9 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $3 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $3 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $9 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $0 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $0 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $3 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $3 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $3 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $9 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.25 · official $3.55 · 583 history records