Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:12:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B3 0xb3ca…02d5 crypto 632 markets active 1h ago coverage 113d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 113d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$925 (-4%) realized −$928 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate67%434W / 216L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day25.7pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$312now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,300
7 days−$752
14 days−$752
30 days−$752
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$1,409
sports 8% +$944
other 6% −$611
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -30.7% -37.3% 33% 27% -24.8%
≤30d 60 -30.7% -37.3% 33% 27% -24.8%
≤90d 382 -11.9% -20.3% 65% 20% -18.2%
all 650 -11.1% -19.6% 67% 30% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.6% 30% -16.5%
10% ← realistic here -27.3% 17% -24.5%
15% -34.3% 14% -31.8%
20% -40.8% 12% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$29 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$312
Realized−$928
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses434 / 216
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions2
Markets (closed)650 / 632
History coverage113d ⚠
Avg bet$39
Trades / day25.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 650 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 53¢ $177 $159 −$18 (-10%)
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 41¢ 48¢ $132 $153 +$21 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 159 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $45 −$45 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 24, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $127 −$127 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $90 −$90 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 24, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $45 −$45 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $102 +$142 +139%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $103 +$16 +16%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $103 −$52 -51%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $98 +$202 +206%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $92 −$90 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $114 −$114 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $203 −$203 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 +$56 +181%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $103 +$2 +2%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $103 −$84 -82%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $102 +$52 +52%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $101 +$84 +83%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $103 +$146 +142%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $51 −$35 -68%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $205 −$200 -97%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $153 +$247 +162%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $151 +$257 +171%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -97%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $51 +$51 +100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $41 −$32 -79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $244 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 35¢ $41 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 13¢ $119 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? SELL Yes 2¢ $50 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 4¢ $103 3h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $102 3h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 15h
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 15h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $98 30h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 15¢ $92 30h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 38¢ $86 31h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 38¢ $1 31h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 38¢ $21 31h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 38¢ $3 31h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 38¢ $3 32h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $87 2d
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 15¢ $104 2d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 3¢ $18 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 73¢ $154 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 47¢ $102 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $203 2d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 2d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 2d
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 24¢ $102 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 34¢ $102 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $102 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $311.55 · official $311.55 (match) · 3500 history records