Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:23:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb3c9…1619 other 114 markets active 2h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$38 (-0%) realized −$38 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate9%10W / 103L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$279per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$13
politics 36% −$17
sports 10% −$9
crypto 4% −$1
tech 4% −$1
economics 3% −$1
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 11 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 104 -2.6% -11.9% 6% 1% -9.8%
all 113 -1.6% -11.0% 9% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 4% -9.6%
10% -19.5% 2% -18.3%
15% -27.3% 2% -26.2%
20% -34.4% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×6.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses10 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)113 / 114
History coverage113d
Avg bet$279
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 21 $391 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $35 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 10 $25 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $324 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 07 $30 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $288 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $315 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $524 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $281 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $211 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $212 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $290 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 17 $275 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $517 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 14 $259 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $575 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 12 $224 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $438 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $242 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $311 $0 -0%
Will Karen Khachanov win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 10 $296 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 09 $247 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $264 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $393 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $296 −$1 -0%
Will Alex Michelsen win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 05 $277 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $644 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $220 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $274 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 02 $554 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $240 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Apr 29 $281 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $861 −$1 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $244 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 26 $319 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 26 $542 −$1 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $320 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 24 $258 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $261 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $297 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $220 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $237 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 20 $311 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 20 $302 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $283 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $229 $0 -0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 18 $288 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $275 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $223 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $30 1h
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $44 5h
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $44 13h
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $35 2d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $35 6d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $38 6d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $38 6d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $39 6d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $39 7d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $26 9d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $26 9d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $25 11d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $25 12d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $41 13d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $41 13d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 13d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 14d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $34 15d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 21d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $26 21d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $26 22d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $289 26d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $289 27d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $296 27d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $296 28d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $281 28d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $281 29d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $211 29d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $211 31d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $212 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.99 · official $29.99 (match) · 328 history records