Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:15:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
B3 0xb3c9…170d crypto 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$2 (+32%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +20.2% +8.7% 75% 50% +14.1%
≤30d 4 +20.2% +8.7% 75% 50% +14.1%
≤90d 4 +20.2% +8.7% 75% 50% +14.1%
all 4 +20.2% +8.7% 75% 50% +14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.7% 50% +14.1%
10% -1.7% 50% +3.2%
15% -11.2% 50% -6.8%
20% -19.9% 50% -15.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 92% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.58 per $1 lost it wins $2.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.36 · official $5.36 (match) · 6 history records