Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:03:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B3 0xb3c7…bf04 sports 293 markets active 2h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,017 (-3%) realized −$3,167 · open +$150
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate51%148W / 143L
Whale WR66%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$374per market
Trades / day11.1pace
Fees−$815est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,967now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$921
7 days+$917
14 days+$228
30 days−$2,616
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$2,716
finance 2% −$224
other 0% +$123
crypto 0% −$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +39.9% +26.6% 67% 67% +31.7%
≤30d 41 -17.7% -25.6% 44% 44% -26.2%
≤90d 222 -17.3% -25.2% 48% 45% -17.4%
all 291 -13.0% -21.3% 51% 48% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.3% 48% -12.1%
10% -28.8% 41% -20.5%
15% -35.7% 33% -28.2%
20% -42.0% 27% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 66% (≥$503) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -16% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$213 vs −$242 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$1,967
Realized−$3,167
Unrealized+$150
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses148 / 143
Whale WR (big bets)66%
Est. fees paid−$815
Open positions2
Markets (closed)291 / 293
History coverage101d
Avg bet$374
Trades / day11.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 291 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 65¢ 72¢ $1,617 $1,779 +$162 (+10%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 3.5 Corners Under 58¢ 55¢ $200 $188 −$12 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 21 $202 +$117 +58%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $202 +$95 +47%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 21 $307 +$442 +144%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $829 +$355 +43%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $93 +$240 +258%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 20 $251 −$248 -99%
Set Handicap: Noskova (-1.5) vs Eala (+1.5) Jun 20 $21 +$23 +110%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $105 −$104 -99%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $328 −$328 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $211 +$118 +56%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $241 −$240 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $245 −$240 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $926 −$922 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev Jun 01 $513 +$402 +78%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Jil Teichmann May 31 $451 +$71 +16%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner May 31 $300 −$300 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Coco Gauff vs Anastasia Potapova May 30 $303 −$300 -99%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner May 30 $111 +$143 +128%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner May 30 $102 +$297 +291%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 30 $820 +$179 +22%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $204 +$233 +114%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $561 −$561 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $304 +$267 +88%
Roland Garros ATP: Alexander Bublik vs Jan-Lennard Struff May 26 $708 +$187 +26%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs ex-HEROIC (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $610 +$389 +64%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 26 $59 −$59 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION - Game 2 Winner May 26 $150 −$150 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs TYLOO - Map 2 Winner May 26 $61 −$61 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 26 $203 −$203 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 26 $51 −$51 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner May 26 $66 −$66 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner May 26 $184 −$184 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Team WE (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 26 $304 −$304 -100%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner May 26 $511 −$511 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Laura Siegemund vs Sara Bejlek May 26 $406 −$406 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 26 $303 −$303 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 26 $841 −$841 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $1,035 +$167 +16%
Roland Garros WTA: Linda Noskova vs Maria Sakkari May 26 $102 −$100 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala May 26 $997 +$143 +14%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner May 21 $227 +$129 +57%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 21 $95 +$43 +45%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 20 $978 +$620 +63%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner May 18 $330 +$436 +132%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 16 $886 +$519 +59%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner May 16 $950 +$820 +86%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner May 07 $156 +$144 +92%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Dalma Galfi vs Anastasia Potapova May 06 $312 +$358 +115%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Lilli Tagger vs Maria Sakkari May 06 $406 +$71 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 65¢ $1,634 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 58¢ $203 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Corners SELL Under 100¢ $319 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 88¢ $297 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 59¢ $202 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 63¢ $202 4h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 41¢ $155 9h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 41¢ $21 9h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 41¢ $2 9h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 41¢ $2 9h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 41¢ $127 9h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 90¢ $224 14h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 90¢ $5 14h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 90¢ $12 14h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 90¢ $115 14h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 90¢ $39 14h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 90¢ $127 14h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 90¢ $180 14h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 90¢ $8 14h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 80¢ $260 14h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 80¢ $52 14h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 80¢ $52 14h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 80¢ $15 14h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 80¢ $52 14h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 80¢ $43 14h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 59¢ $829 15h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 63¢ $251 22h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 24¢ $51 22h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 33¢ $42 22h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 51¢ $105 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,966.61 · official $1,975.23 (match) · 1309 history records