Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T10:27:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb3c4…a7ff sports 809 markets active 2h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$439 (-1%) realized −$438 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate79%640W / 167L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day17.0pace
Fees−$163est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days−$68
14 days−$257
30 days−$426
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$28
crypto 37% −$244
other 7% −$452
weather 3% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -8.2% -16.9% 86% 14% -16.7%
≤30d 88 -6.9% -15.7% 77% 44% -13.8%
≤90d 518 +2.9% -6.9% 78% 58% -11.6%
all 807 +0.3% -9.3% 79% 47% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 47% -10.3%
10% -18.0% 26% -18.9%
15% -25.9% 16% -26.7%
20% -33.2% 9% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$48 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized−$438
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses640 / 167
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$163
Open positions2
Markets (closed)807 / 809
History coverage118d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day17.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 807 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 29? No 93¢ 97¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 29? No 90¢ 85¢ $54 $51 −$3 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 38°C on June 28? Jun 28 $39 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 28? Jun 28 $61 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 27? Jun 27 $98 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 26? Jun 26 $38 +$3 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 42°C on June 25? Jun 25 $54 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 25? Jun 25 $34 +$5 +14%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 25 $50 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 24? Jun 24 $77 +$8 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 23? Jun 23 $73 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 23? Jun 23 $62 +$8 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 23? Jun 22 $56 −$56 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23? Jun 22 $62 −$62 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 22? Jun 22 $76 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 22? Jun 22 $73 +$7 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 21? Jun 21 $69 +$11 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 21? Jun 21 $70 +$7 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 20? Jun 21 $67 +$13 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 19? Jun 19 $69 +$5 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $63 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18? Jun 19 $62 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? Jun 18 $64 +$4 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $62 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $61 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $60 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $114 +$6 +5%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $201 −$200 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $58 −$57 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $247 +$10 +4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $234 +$13 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $178 +$11 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $28 +$16 +57%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $40 −$40 -99%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 69°F or below on June Jun 13 $237 +$10 +4%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 13 $200 +$37 +18%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $140 +$15 +11%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $21 +$24 +114%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $134 +$27 +20%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $387 −$386 -100%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 12 $40 +$6 +14%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group Jun 12 $40 +$10 +26%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 12 $54 −$54 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $30 +$10 +34%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 11 $30 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $25 −$25 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $170 +$36 +21%
LoL: Galions vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 10 $312 +$19 +6%
Game Handicap: GAL (-1.5) vs WLGaming Esports (+1.5) Jun 10 $99 +$29 +29%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $90 +$20 +23%
LoL: Solary vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 10 $300 +$12 +4%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Verdant (BO3) - EMEA Masters Play-In Jun 09 $173 +$17 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY No 93¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 29? BUY No 90¢ $55 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 28? BUY No 95¢ $22 20h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 28? BUY No 95¢ $24 20h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 28? BUY No 95¢ $5 20h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 28? BUY No 95¢ $10 20h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 38°C on June 28? BUY No 97¢ $39 23h
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $100 34h
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 27? BUY No 97¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 27? BUY No 97¢ $37 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 27? BUY No 97¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 27? BUY No 97¢ $37 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 27? BUY No 97¢ $16 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 26? BUY No 93¢ $38 3d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 42°C on June 25? BUY No 95¢ $54 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 25? BUY No 88¢ $34 4d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 94¢ $46 4d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 94¢ $4 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 24? SELL No 100¢ $85 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 24? BUY No 91¢ $77 5d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $77 5d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 23? BUY No 95¢ $7 5d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 23? BUY No 95¢ $66 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $70 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 23? BUY No 89¢ $62 6d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 23? BUY No 93¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23? BUY No 95¢ $52 6d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 23? BUY No 93¢ $8 6d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 23? BUY No 93¢ $43 6d
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23? BUY No 95¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.76 · official $103.97 (match) · 2827 history records