Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:28:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb3c4…3c7b other 122 markets active 2h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$38 (-0%) realized −$38 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate7%9W / 113L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$257per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$17
politics 29% −$11
sports 13% −$11
crypto 3% $0
economics 3% −$1
world 3% −$1
tech 1% +$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 81 -0.1% -9.6% 1% 0% -9.6%
all 122 -1.7% -11.1% 7% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 3% -9.6%
10% -19.6% 2% -18.3%
15% -27.4% 2% -26.2%
20% -34.5% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×5.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses9 / 113
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)122 / 122
History coverage131d
Avg bet$257
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 122 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $243 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 19 $195 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $428 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $212 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $461 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $212 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $234 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $211 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 21 $170 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $218 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $181 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 20 $172 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $216 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 19 $186 $0 -0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 18 $173 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 17 $464 −$1 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $400 −$1 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $425 $0 -0%
Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 14 $230 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $418 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $179 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 12 $213 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $232 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $408 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $219 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $224 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 19 $427 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $173 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $202 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? Apr 18 $249 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $353 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $207 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $202 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 16 $232 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $210 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $184 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 15 $610 −$1 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 15 $247 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $636 −$1 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $186 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $187 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $909 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $192 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 12 $228 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 11 $242 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? Apr 10 $234 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $252 −$1 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $821 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $177 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 07 $182 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $28 1h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $28 9h
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $38 35h
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $38 47h
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $183 21d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $183 23d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $212 24d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $212 24d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $218 25d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $218 26d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $212 26d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $212 27d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $234 27d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $234 27d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $211 28d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $211 29d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $170 29d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $170 30d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $218 30d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $218 30d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $181 30d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $181 31d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $172 31d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $172 32d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $216 32d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $216 32d
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $186 32d
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $186 33d
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio SELL No 100¢ $173 33d
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio BUY No 100¢ $173 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 368 history records