Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:54:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B3 0xb3c3…5034 crypto 517 markets active 13h ago coverage 246d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 245d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$955 (+1%) realized +$945 · open +$10
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate67%342W / 171L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$244per market
Trades / day12.5pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$110now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 246d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$1,777
other 4% +$34
weather 2% −$35
politics 1% −$49
sports 0% −$75
tech 0% +$3
world 0% +$3
finance 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +16.9% +5.8% 70% 70% +2.6%
≤30d 29 +6.8% -3.4% 66% 59% -10.0%
≤90d 45 -1.1% -10.5% 71% 40% -13.1%
all 513 +3.2% -6.6% 67% 19% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 19% -11.3%
10% -15.6% 17% -19.8%
15% -23.7% 15% -27.5%
20% -31.2% 13% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$575) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +17% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$46 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

246d coverage
Net worth$110
Realized+$945
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses342 / 171
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions4
Markets (closed)513 / 517
History coverage246d ⚠
Avg bet$244
Trades / day12.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 513 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: France (-3.5) Iraq 66¢ 84¢ $30 $38 +$8 (+27%)
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 57¢ 57¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Under 73¢ 72¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 42¢ 48¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 158 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 22 $30 +$30 +97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $31 +$19 +60%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 21 $29 +$11 +36%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $30 −$30 -99%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $28 −$28 -99%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $31 +$46 +152%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$15 +50%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $30 −$30 -99%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $30 +$24 +79%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 20 $30 +$12 +40%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$22 +73%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $30 +$9 +29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 +$17 +57%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $32 +$18 +55%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$14 +134%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$22 +109%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$13 +62%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $37 +$13 +34%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$23 +23%
IR Iran to score first vs. New Zealand? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$19 +93%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $82 −$82 -100%
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) Jun 12 $97 +$3 +4%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Neither team to score first? Jun 12 $9 +$1 +10%
Korea Republic to score first vs. Czechia? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 17? Apr 23 $55 +$5 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 19 $40 +$10 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 16? Apr 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 16 $212 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 28 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 16°C or below on March 27 Mar 27 $63 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on March 27? Mar 27 $102 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on March 26? Mar 27 $97 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 17°C on March 27? Mar 26 $42 −$42 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C or below on March 26? Mar 26 $102 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 26? Mar 26 $78 −$78 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on March 26? Mar 26 $105 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C or higher on March 25 Mar 25 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 16°C on March 25? Mar 25 $57 +$5 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on March 25? Mar 25 $103 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on March 25? Mar 25 $109 +$3 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 24 $156 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 24? Mar 24 $73 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on March 24? Mar 24 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on March 24? Mar 24 $106 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 16°C on March 23? Mar 23 $104 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 73¢ $30 13h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $30 13h
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY Iraq 66¢ $30 13h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 50¢ $30 13h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $31 34h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $30 34h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $28 34h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 73¢ $29 34h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $30 2d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $31 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $31 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $30 3d
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 71¢ $30 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 3d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $30 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $30 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 4d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 64¢ $32 4d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 73¢ $30 5d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 5d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $20 5d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $20 5d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $37 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 6d
IR Iran to score first vs. New Zealand? BUY Yes 61¢ $31 6d
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 42¢ $9 7d
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 7d
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 7d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $110.13 · official $110.13 (match) · 3500 history records